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By Auzinea Bacon, CNN

(CNN) — Moviegoers escaped into director James Cameron’s sci-fi universe this weekend, driving the third installment of the “Avatar” franchise to an estimated $88 million domestically.

The opening was shy of analysts’ expectations that it could earn more than $100 million in its first weekend. The first “Avatar” movie debuted in 2009 to $115 million, adjusted for inflation. The second film, “Avatar: The Way of Water,” opened in 2022 to $134 million domestically.

But “Avatar: Fire and Ash” also earned roughly $257 million internationally, bringing its global opening to $345 million. It will likely remain a top draw for moviegoers during the holidays and as it plays into January, said Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Comscore.

“As an international, especially 3D phenomenon, and in IMAX and the other premium formats, ‘Avatar’ is an event movie,” he said.

The movie’s nearly $400 million budget may weaken the chances for a fourth film if it has a disappointing return compared with more popular live-action formats, Cameron told CNN’s Jason Carroll last week. The franchise’s fate will be determined by “Fire and Ash’s” success over the coming weeks, Cameron said.

Movie theater attendance has declined in recent years as streaming services have proliferated and Americans have scaled back on discretionary spending. But blockbuster films like the “Avatar” franchise often lure back audiences who prefer the big screen, IMAX or 3D experiences.

“The theater is a sacred space for me as a filmmaker,” Cameron told CNN. “It’s never going to go away. But I think it could fall below a threshold where the kinds of movies that I like to make, and I like to see, won’t be sustainable. They won’t be economically viable. We’re very close to that right now.”

 

Optimism for year-end box office

 

Despite a strong December, Hollywood failed to return to pre-pandemic levels this year. The domestic box office is down 22.5% compared with 2019, and up just 1.3% year-over-year, with earnings totaling $8.37 billion, according to Comscore.

Theaters, analysts and movie studios rejoiced in 2023, when the release of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” revived hope that the theater experience could still thrive. The box office surpassed $9 billion that year, the first and only time since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Though audiences are still showing up to theaters, it “remains to be seen” whether the box office will reach $9 billion again, Dergarabedian said.

“The box office, considering all th