By Alayna Treene, Kevin Liptak, CNN

(CNN) — President Donald Trump has told his top advisers in recent days he wants the US naval blockade of Iranian ports to continue, sources familiar with the talks said, and his team has begun laying the groundwork for such an extension, including a longer-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The president, for now, is digging into a strategy designed to inflict as much economic pain on Iran as possible in the hopes of forcing Tehran back to the negotiating table without having to resume military strikes, the sources said.

But the strategy for dealing with a war that has now stretched into its ninth week is not without risk for Trump, who once predicted the conflict would last no longer than six weeks.

The strait’s closure has driven up gas prices, contributing to Americans’ weariness of the ongoing war and sending Trump’s approval ratings, especially on his handling of the economy, to new lows. And the cost of the conflict is adding up — a senior Pentagon official told lawmakers Wednesday the US has spent $25 billion on the Iran war so far. All of that is feeding GOP anxiety about the party’s prospects in November elections.

Nor is it clear this strategy will work — Iran has previously demonstrated an ability to withstand debilitating economic pain without capitulating to American demands.

Still, Trump appears intent on tightening the grip on Iran’s economy until Tehran concedes to his red lines on nuclear enrichment, believing, in his words, the US holds “all the cards.”

“The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can’t have a nuclear weapon,” Trump told Axios in a phone interview Wednesday.

American officials have reviewed intelligence suggesting Iran’s economy can only survive for another few weeks, if not days, before the strain of the blockade forces its collapse, two people familiar with the talks said, pointing to Tehran’s struggles to store unsold oil.

Trump has suggested it won’t take long for the excess oil to cause permanent damage to Iran’s energy infrastructure.

“What happens is, that line explodes from within, both mechanically and in the earth,” he said Sunday on Fox News. “Something happens where it just explodes. They say they only have about three days left before that happens. And when it explodes, you can never rebuild it the way it was.”

The US has intercepted or redirected nearly 40 ships attempting to enter or exit Iranian ports since the blockade began earlier this month. Trump is betting such pressure will serve as enough leverage for diplomacy to prevail, the sources familiar said.

“Iran has just informed us that they are in a ‘State of Collapse,’” Trump posted to social media on Tuesday. “They want us to ‘Open the Hormuz Strait,’ as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation.”

The same day, Trump met with energy executives, where t

Análisis de Hanna Ziady, CNN

La Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo, OPEP, está a punto de perder a uno de sus miembros más importantes. La salida de los Emiratos Árabes Unidos asestará un golpe al grupo que podría poner en riesgo su capacidad para influir en el mercado mundial del petróleo.

EAU es el tercer mayor productor de petróleo crudo de la OPEP, después de Arabia Saudita e Iraq. Su salida del grupo le permitirá bombear más petróleo, lo que podría ayudar a bajar los precios del petróleo y el gas a largo plazo.

Pero si esperas un alivio inmediato de los altos precios en la gasolinera, podrías llevarte una decepción.

El crudo Brent, el referente mundial del petróleo, se negocia actualmente en máximos de varias semanas, en torno a US$ 117 por barril. Y el precio promedio nacional de la gasolina en EE.UU. está en un máximo de cuatro años, en torno a US$ 4,23.

No obstante, los analistas dicen que el impacto en los precios del petróleo del movimiento de EAU será limitado mientras el estrecho de Ormuz permanezca en gran medida cerrado, lo que actualmente retiene unos 10-12 millones de barriles de crudo al día de los mercados mundiales.

EAU ha estado “ansioso por bombear más petróleo”, tras haber invertido fuertemente en los últimos años para ampliar su infraestructura de producción, según David Oxley, economista jefe de clima y materias primas de Capital Economics.

La OPEP ha restringido la capacidad de EAU para bombear libremente porque el grupo impone cuotas de producción a sus miembros para regular la oferta y la demanda. Los críticos acusan al grupo de manipular los precios, algo que niega.

Las cuotas más recientes de la OPEP limitaron la producción de petróleo de EAU a 3,2 millones de barriles al día, cuando en realidad tiene capacidad para producir cerca de 5 millones de barriles al día, dijo a Connect the World de CNN Robin Mills, director ejecutivo de la consultora QamarEnergy, con sede en Dubái.

La oferta adicional potencial cubriría alrededor de 1-2 % de la demanda mundial diaria de petróleo.

La OPEP se formó en 1960 por cinco de los mayores productores de petróleo del mundo en ese momento, a saber: Arabia Saudita, Irán, Iraq, Kuwait y Venezuela. El grupo se expandió hasta 16 países miembros en su punto máximo, pero actualmente tiene 12 miembros, después de que Ecuador, Indonesia, Qatar y Angola se retiraran en los últimos años.

Sin duda, el cártel es menos poderoso de lo que fue alguna vez. Cuando los miembros de la OPEP detuvieron las exportaciones a Estados Unidos y otros países durante el infame embargo petrolero árabe, en medio del conflicto árabe-israelí en 1973, los precios mundiales del petróleo se dispararon 300 % y empujaron a la mayoría de las economías occidentales a la recesión.

La influencia de la OPEP ha disminuido en parte desde entonces porque el voraz consumidor de petróleo Estados Unidos ahora es un exportador neto de petróleo (aunque todavía importa algunos tipos de crudo y productos petrolíferos). La economía mundial también se ha vuelto mucho menos intensiva en petróleo gracias a la electrificación, la eficiencia energética y a que el gas natural y las energías renovables han asumido una mayor proporción de la generación eléctrica.

Para apuntalar su autoridad, el grupo se amplió en 2016 para incorporar a otros productores de petróleo, como Rusia, bajo el paraguas de OPEP+.

OPEP+ representa casi 42 % de la producción mundial de petróleo crudo, según las propias cifras del grupo, por lo que sus decisiones sobre la producción de petróleo aún pueden influir en los precios.

Dado que los precios mundiales del petróleo crudo están determina

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By Bryan Mena, CNN

Washington (CNN) — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting, with some policymakers citing still-elevated energy prices due to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Fed officials kept the benchmark lending rate in a range of 3.5-3.75%, in what is expected to be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair before his term ends on May 15.

Powell is set to address reporters at 2:30 p.m. ET to discuss the Fed’s latest decision, and possibly announce whether he plans to remain on the Fed’s board after his term as chair expires. He is serving a concurrent term as a Fed governor that runs through January 2028.

Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to succeed Powell, is widely expected to favor additional rate cuts this year, and he cleared a key hurdle in his confirmation process earlier Wednesday, putting him firmly on track to assume one of the most powerful positions in the global economy. His nomination is expected to advance to the broader Senate chamber for a final vote.

But, while Warsh may favor lower rates, there currently isn’t a convincing economic argument for easier monetary policy anytime soon — a view that three key Fed voters telegraphed at this meeting.

The decision to hold steady was nearly unanimous, with only Fed Governor Stephen Miran casting a dissenting vote in favor of lower rates than the majority wants for the sixth consecutive meeting.

But Fed presidents Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Lorie Logan of Dallas “did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.”

Their dissents underscore how difficult it will be for Warsh, if he’s confirmed, to persuade the majority of the Fed’s 12-person rate-setting committee to go along with lower rates. While the Fed chair wields considerable influence, controlling the agenda for every Fed meeting, they have only one vote in a committee that makes consensus-based decisions.

This story is developing and will be updated.

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