Análisis por Stephen Collinson, CNN

El cambio de estrategia del presidente Donald Trump, pasando de la guerra cinética a la económica con el bloqueo de los barcos y puertos de Irán, es un intento de poner fin al conflicto sin una nueva ofensiva estadounidense-israelí.

La lógica de la operación es que, si Irán no puede exportar su petróleo e importar productos básicos vitales, sufrirá consecuencias financieras y humanitarias tan devastadoras que no tendrá más remedio que aceptar las condiciones de Estados Unidos para poner fin a la guerra.

Esta podría ser una apuesta acertada. Una economía ya devastada por las sanciones podría sufrir rápidamente una grave escasez de alimentos, hiperinflación y una crisis bancaria.

Sería una solución ingeniosa si Trump respondiera al intento de Irán de estrangular la economía mundial cerrando parcialmente el estrecho de Ormuz con su propia maniobra marítima decisiva.

Sin embargo, las crecientes esperanzas de los funcionarios estadounidenses, las páginas editoriales conservadoras y los analistas de que el bloqueo pueda doblegar a Irán se basan en una suposición que ha desviado repetidamente a Estados Unidos en Medio Oriente.

La estrategia parte de la premisa de que Irán responderá a la presión de una manera que Washington considere lógica.

Sin embargo, la historia reciente sugiere que los adversarios de Estados Unidos —como Iraq, Afganistán, Rusia y Libia— a menudo no actúan de acuerdo con los cálculos occidentales sobre sus propios intereses nacionales.

Se espera que los líderes iraníes ofrezcan concesiones para mitigar las consecuencias extremas del bloqueo.

El plan también insinúa la esperanza, aún no expresada, de que el deterioro de la situación económica pueda desencadenar una nueva disidencia política interna y poner a prueba el control del régimen.

A largo plazo, responde a la evidente necesidad de los líderes iraníes de impulsar el crecimiento económico para reconstruir el país tras la implacable campaña de bombardeos estadounidenses e israelíes.

Pero la idea de que los líderes iraníes vean lo que está en juego de esta manera puede ser una suposición arriesgada.

Según organizaciones de derechos humanos y estimaciones externas, las autoridades revolucionarias ya han demostrado indiferencia ante el sufrimiento de su pueblo con sucesivas represiones políticas que han causado miles de muertos.

La supervivencia del régimen, a pesar de la eliminación de muchos de sus altos dirigentes durante la guerra, evidencia su gran tolerancia al dolor.

Es posible que Estados Unidos esté subestimando nuevamente su capacidad de resistencia en lo que los líderes iraníes perciben como una batalla existencial.

Informes de CNN y otros medios sugieren que Trump creía que la ofensiva estadounidense-israelí pondría fin a la guerra rápidamente, mucho antes de que Irán pudiera tomar medidas como el cierre del estrecho.

Por lo tanto, el resultado del bloqueo estadounidense podría depender del momento en que se produzca.

¿Aumentará la presión sobre Irán y logrará modificar su comportamiento antes de que el bloqueo estadounidense agrave el daño económico mundial ya provocado por el cierre del estrecho por parte de Irán, que ha aniquilado una parte importante del suministro mundial de petróleo y gas natural?

Si no lo hace, el nuevo enfoque de Trump podría convertirse en otra trampa política y agravar las repercusiones de una guerra que ya amenaza las esperanzas del Partido Republicano en las elecciones de mitad de mandato.

Al igual que gran parte del liderazgo de Trump en tiempos de guerra, el bloqueo pareció improvisado y mal explicado al pueblo estadounidense. Sin emba

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CNN, KARE, KMBC, WBAY, WLUK, SPIRIT APOTHEOSIS, BRITNEY REESE, CLARISSA KNECHTEL, RUDY PABELICK, SCOTT KROEPEL

By CNN Meteorologists Briana Waxman, Dakota Smith and CNN’s Kate S. Petersen

(CNN) — A new batch of severe storms fired up Wednesday afternoon, dropping softball-sized hail near Kansas City and golf-ball sized hail in Ohio.

The storms are part of a multi-day system that brought tornadoes and large hail to parts of Wisconsin and Iowa on Tuesday evening, leaving behind damaged buildings and at least one destroyed home.

And early Wednesday evening, a tornado moved through Clinton, Missouri. There are no injuries or deaths from the tornado, Henry County Sheriff Aaron Brown said, but there is damage reported throughout the city and about 2,000 residents without power, Henry County Emergency Manager Mark Hardin told CNN affiliate KSHB.

The severe weather began Monday and will continue through the end of the week from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.

There have been dozens of reports of tornadoes from Oklahoma and Kansas to southern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan since Monday night. Destructive hail ranging in size from limes to softballs has also been common, with nearly 100 reports across the same region.

Flooding is also a serious problem and concern in Michigan and Wisconsin, where rivers are already running high and putting flood infrastructure to the test.

Early week tornado damage reported

A nasty storm prompted a “particularly dangerous situation” tornado warning Tuesday as a destructive twister struck near Union Center, Wisconsin.

The twister caused “significant damage” to many homes, downed power lines and left some roads impassable, but no injuries or deaths were reported, Juneau County Emergency Management said. The tornado has been preliminarily rated an EF3 with winds up to 140 mph, according to the National Weather Service.

Tornado warnings were issued for millions in Milwaukee and Madison, Wisconsin; Detroit and Ann Arbor, Michigan; and Fayetteville, Arkansas, Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Students and staff at the University of Michigan and University of Arkansas were advised to take shelter.

Powerful severe thunderstorms also moved through Chicago and Grand Rapids, Michigan, where the airport recorded an 80 mph wind gust.

Softball-sized hail fell near Maple Bluff, Wisconsin. Stones this large are capable of seriously injuring people, totaling vehicles and puncturing roofs.

On Monday night, a pair of EF2 tornadoes struck eastern Kansas. One of those in Miami County, Kansas, damaged about 100 structures — roughly 50 to 60 of them “completely destroyed” or significantly damaged — with much of the impact centered around Hillsdale, according to county Undersheriff Matthew Kelly.

Dangerous severe storm threat continues through late week

Overnight into Thursday morning, areas from near the Texas and Oklahoma border to Iowa and northwest Illinois have the highest chance at seeing severe storms that are more impactful, including an elevated tornado threat, but the Level 2 of 5 risk zone extends as far north and east as Milwaukee and Chicago.

The storm threat is lower and less widespread on Thursday,

CNN, KARE, KMBC, WBAY, WLUK, SPIRIT APOTHEOSIS, BRITNEY REESE, CLARISSA KNECHTEL, RUDY PABELICK, SCOTT KROEPEL

By CNN Meteorologists Briana Waxman, Dakota Smith and CNN’s Kate S. Petersen

(CNN) — A new batch of severe storms fired up Wednesday afternoon, dropping softball-sized hail near Kansas City and golf-ball sized hail in Ohio.

The storms are part of a multi-day system that brought tornadoes and large hail to parts of Wisconsin and Iowa on Tuesday evening, leaving behind damaged buildings and at least one destroyed home.

And early Wednesday evening, a tornado moved through Clinton, Missouri. There are no injuries or deaths from the tornado, Henry County Sheriff Aaron Brown said, but there is damage reported throughout the city and about 2,000 residents without power, Henry County Emergency Manager Mark Hardin told CNN affiliate KSHB.

The severe weather began Monday and will continue through the end of the week from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.

There have been dozens of reports of tornadoes from Oklahoma and Kansas to southern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan since Monday night. Destructive hail ranging in size from limes to softballs has also been common, with nearly 100 reports across the same region.

Flooding is also a serious problem and concern in Michigan and Wisconsin, where rivers are already running high and putting flood infrastructure to the test.

Early week tornado damage reported

A nasty storm prompted a “particularly dangerous situation” tornado warning Tuesday as a destructive twister struck near Union Center, Wisconsin.

The twister caused “significant damage” to many homes, downed power lines and left some roads impassable, but no injuries or deaths were reported, Juneau County Emergency Management said. The tornado has been preliminarily rated an EF3 with winds up to 140 mph, according to the National Weather Service.

Tornado warnings were issued for millions in Milwaukee and Madison, Wisconsin; Detroit and Ann Arbor, Michigan; and Fayetteville, Arkansas, Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Students and staff at the University of Michigan and University of Arkansas were advised to take shelter.

Powerful severe thunderstorms also moved through Chicago and Grand Rapids, Michigan, where the airport recorded an 80 mph wind gust.

Softball-sized hail fell near Maple Bluff, Wisconsin. Stones this large are capable of seriously injuring people, totaling vehicles and puncturing roofs.

On Monday night, a pair of EF2 tornadoes struck eastern Kansas. One of those in Miami County, Kansas, damaged about 100 structures — roughly 50 to 60 of them “completely destroyed” or significantly damaged — with much of the impact centered around Hillsdale, according to county Undersheriff Matthew Kelly.

Dangerous severe storm threat continues through late week

Overnight into Thursday morning, areas from near the Texa

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