By CNN Meteorologist Briana Waxman
(CNN) — A rapidly strengthening storm is expected to develop off the Southeast coast this weekend amid a deadly cold outbreak, bringing a high likelihood of snow and strong winds to parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia – just days after a historic winter storm blasted large parts of the East Coast.
Farther north along the Interstate-95 corridor, the forecast is less certain, with small shifts in the storm’s track potentially bringing a blockbuster blizzard or a breezy day with some light snow in major Northeast cities.
Models are increasingly aligned on a low-pressure system forming off the Carolinas early Saturday and intensifying rapidly into a bomb cyclone. How closely the storm hugs the coast as it moves north through the weekend will determine how much snow, if any, falls across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Southeast: heavy snow, punishing winds, coastal erosion likely
Forecast confidence is highest across parts of the Southeast, including the Carolinas and southern Virginia, where accumulating snow and strong winds will likely begin Saturday.
Models agree that the storm will track close enough to bring snow to this region even with modest shifts in its path. While exact snowfall totals are still being refined, the signal for accumulation is strong enough to raise concerns about hazardous travel, especially with cold air already firmly in place.
The highest snow totals are expected closer to the coast in North Carolina and Virginia, where cities like Raleigh, North Carolina, and Roanoke, Virginia, could receive between 6 and 12 inches of snow. Lighter totals are expected inland, and some models show flakes flying as far west as Atlanta, Knoxville and Roanoke.
Strong winds could further worsen conditions, leading to blowing snow and the potential for scattered power outages if heavier snow bands develop. Snow is expected to continue into Sunday as the storm intensifies offshore.
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast: close shave between a blizzard and a blustery day
Farther north into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, forecast confidence drops sharply, with the storm’s eventual track playing a critical role in determining impacts.
As of early Thursday, areas closer to the coast and farther north into New England appear to have the best chance of seeing accumulating snow. Even so, a shift of just 100 to 200 miles could dramatically change outcomes, particularly for cities along the Interstate-95 corridor.
A track that hugs the coast could bring a significant snowstorm with damaging winds and dangerous cold. A slightly farther offshore track would likely result in a glancing blow, delivering light snow or mainly windy conditions for cities such as Washington, DC, Philadelphia and New York City.
Boston has a better chance of seeing snow given its position farther east, closer to the storm’s likely path.
Coastal impacts: beach erosion, high surf, coastal flooding likely
Even in areas that miss out on snow, coastal impacts remain a serious concern along parts of the East Coast as the storm rapidly intensifies offshore.
According to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, “Wind gusts near hurricane-force will coincide with astronomical high tides, producing moderate to locally significant coastal flooding.”
Strong winds, high surf and beach erosion are possible from the Southeast coast into parts of the Northeast, particularly if the storm strengthens quickly while tracking closer to shore. Coastal flooding will depend on the storm’s strength, timing and pr