By Phil Mattingly, Zachary Cohen, CNN
(CNN) — The Trump administration is currently trapped between the specter of a global economic recession and a naval catastrophe.
As the conflict with Iran intensifies, the world’s energy arteries are constricting to a point of “nonlinearity,” where every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed doesn’t just double the economic pain — it multiplies it exponentially.
So, the Trump administration is working to resolve the oil crisis on several fronts: It’s scrambling to organize a complex military operation to restart the flow of oil tankers through the strait while determining ways to alleviate prices by taking action in the markets. It also launched a PR campaign to assure the public that any pain at the pump is likely to be short term.
Yet inside the Pentagon and the West Wing, the math is becoming grim. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, has surged past $100 a barrel. The lack of oil flowing through the global market has slowed production to a crawl and is rapidly approaching the tipping point where major producers shut it down altogether due to storage constraints.
Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE are shutting off wells as storage tanks overflow. Once these wells go dark, they cannot simply be flipped back on, creating a looming supply crater that would create a cascading effect on the global economy.
“These kinds of market conditions, if they last or get worse, are going to force a reality where there’s going to have be a reconsideration of the scale and scope of this operation,” a former senior administration official told CNN. “There is an urgent need for a near-term solution, and the White House is aware of that fact.”
The only immediate solution to this spiraling crisis, according to oil executives, market analysts and diplomats, is a US Navy escort operation – something Trump promised last week would be available to protect shipping assets in short order.
“This is a matter that is being studied very closely by the military and discussed constantly,” a senior administration official told CNN. “A lot of progress has been made in coming up with a plan that can do exactly what the president has suggested.”
The internal deliberations over the timing and conditions for a US naval operation have been a central focus inside the administration over the last week, according to multiple people briefed on the planning who spoke to CNN.
Inside the administration, the intensive internal deliberations over the operation have focused on analyzing the risk of sending US naval assets into an active conflict zone.
‘Death Valley’
However, one source described the current state of the strait as “Death Valley.”
While the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group stands ready, the tactical reality on the water is treacherous. Iran has effectively bifurcated the strait between its traditional Navy and the more aggressive Revolutionary Guard.
The latter has the capability the deploy a “gauntlet” of dispersed mine-laying craft, explosive-laden suicide boats and shore-based missile batteries.
“The oil pressure is going to hit a head sooner than we can remove the capabilities we want to move,” one source noted. “The timelines don’t match up.”
US ships are currently avoiding the more dangerous chokepoints in the strait while still supporting US operations in Iran. Taking on the escort mission would require putting naval vessels in harm’s way purely for the purpose of shielding oil ships with no obvious strategic advantage for the war itself.
The long-standing operational plan involves US destroyers positioning themselves to protect the tankers from Iranian thre