By Asuka Koda, CNN
(CNN) — Breast cancer is the most diagnosed cancer among women globally, and the number of cases worldwide is estimated to reach over 3.5 million by 2050, new research has found.
In high-income countries, decades of investment in screening, early detection and treatment drove a nearly 30% decline in breast cancer mortality between 1990 and 2023. But in the world’s lowest-income countries, the trend is moving in the opposite direction: Deaths from breast cancer have nearly doubled over the same period, according to a study published Monday in the journal The Lancet Oncology.
The findings, drawn from an analysis of breast cancer trends across 204 countries and territories for over three decades, show a deepening global divide between who lives and who dies from the most common cancer among women worldwide.
“There were improvements in mortality rates over time in higher-income settings, but there were really inequities in progress and increasing mortality in some lower-income settings,” said senior study author Dr. Lisa Force, an assistant professor at the University of Washington School of Medicine’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
An estimated 2.3 million women were diagnosed with breast cancer globally in 2023, resulting in 764,000 deaths, according to the study. Nearly 1 in 4 cancers diagnosed in women worldwide that year was breast cancer.
While the death rate, adjusted to account for differences in population age across countries, dropped by nearly 30% in high-income nations between 1990 and 2023, it increased by roughly 99% in low-income countries over the same period. Meanwhile, the diagnosis rate in low-income countries rose by 147% over the same period.
For women living in sub-Saharan Africa, which includes some of the highest mortality rates worldwide, the numbers are especially alarming. Mortality rates in central and western sub-Saharan Africa are now more than double the global average, with roughly 35 deaths for every 100,000 people each year after adjusting for age.
“People’s outcomes from cancer depend on what country they live in,” said Dr. Kamal Menghrajani, an oncologist at Massachusetts General Hospital who wasn’t involved in the study. “And that shouldn’t be the case.”
A gap in infrastructure
The divergence reflects a fundamental mismatch between rising diagnosis rates and the infrastructure needed to treat the disease, Menghrajani explained.
Cancer awareness and screening are not enough, said Menghrajani, former assistant director for cancer innovation and public health in the Biden administration. “We need to have strong infrastructure in place to be able to treat people who have cancer and support them all the way through so that they can be cured.”
Treating breast cancer requires a carefully coordinated system, she said: surgery, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy or targeted treatments. In the United States, all three are generally available and covered by insurance.
In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the picture is dramatically different. As of 2020, only about half of African countries had any external beam radiotherapy service — the most common form of radiation therapy for breast cancer — and none had sufficient capacity to meet their populations’ needs, according to the study.
Where radiation is unavailable, mastectomy often becomes the default treatment, the study noted, but without the surrounding infrastructure of postoperative care and systemic therapy, even surgery has limited effectiveness.
The cost of some treatments compounds the problem. The authors wrote that a standard course of trastuzumab, a targeted therapy for a common s