By Alicia Wallace, CNN
(CNN) — When the April jobs report is released at 8:30 a.m. ET, it is expected to show that the US labor market added 65,000 positions.
If so, that’s roughly one-third of the 178,000 jobs created in March.
While in comparison the April total may seem like a sharp deceleration or a tepid month of employment growth, when viewed in isolation, it could seem solid or resilient — maybe even normal.
There are plenty of logical explanations for the stark shift and the undulating payroll numbers for the first few months of 2026; however, there’s also something much bigger afoot: The job market is in the throes of an evolution.
“The labor market is absolutely transforming, and it’s not going to look the same as our pre-2020 trends,” Nicole Bachaud, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter, told CNN in an interview.
There’s not a clear picture yet, she said, of what the new normal is.
The US job market and the broader economy have been subject to a slew of exogenous shocks during the past six years – chief among them being a once-in-a-century global pandemic.
In the backdrop, however, is a series of changes more structural in nature (some of which have even been helped along by those outside shocks):
- The US population is aging. Labor force growth is slowing as members of the large Baby Boomer cohort retire; industries such as health care and social services have greatly expanded as a result.
- There’s been a sharp reduction in net immigration. Trump administration policies of immigration restrictions and mass deportations have shifted the trajectory of what was a decades-long driver of labor supply. This shift also reduces labor demand through a drop in consumer spending.
- Technological innovations, notably artificial intelligence, are reshaping jobs, industries, and the economy. Although still early days, the adoption of AI is contributing to changes in the occupational mix; has been directly cited as a reason (or, perhaps, scapegoat) for layoffs; and has shown potential to influence economy-shaping dynamics such as productivity and wages.
A roller coaster-like effect
Getting a firm read on the labor market in 2026 has been like riding a roller coaster: The economy added an estimated 160,000 jobs in January and lost 133,000 jobs in February before bouncing back to that March total. (These monthly tallies are still subject to revision.)
The volatility can be partly attributed to several factors, including weather, labor strikes, lower-than-typical post-holiday layoffs, and recalibrations to how the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates payroll changes at new and closed businesses (referred to as the birth-death model).
Those fluctuations in the top-line payroll number could very well continue in the months to come, largely because of the birth-death model changes, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.
“In fact, we moved away from really placing an emphasis on any given month, and we’re looking at a smooth three-month average now,” he said.
From January through March, the average monthly gain is sitting at 68,333.
The consensus estimates, at 65,000 jobs added, fall right in line with that average.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, FactSet estimates show.
Job growth slows as structural changes take hold
April’s projected job growth, however, is likely still running “above trend,” noted Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, which is forecasting a total of 45,000 jobs were added last month.
“The e