By Christian Edwards, CNN
London (CNN) — Anthony Seldon has written biographies of each of the last eight British prime ministers. When he embarked on the project in the 1990s, the work was mammoth but measured. Then, the occupants of 10 Downing Street would spend several years in office, allowing him to scrutinize his subjects properly as they each stamped themselves on their times.
But Seldon now risks being overtaken by events. After the recent churn of leaders under the previous Conservative government, which saw the party cycle through three leaders in one year, Seldon had hoped that Keir Starmer’s victory in 2024 would herald a return to political normality. Starmer’s Labour Party won a thumping majority in parliament and promised a “decade” of national renewal.
But less than two years into Starmer’s premiership, he may already be on the way out. After voters decisively rejected Labour Party candidates in local elections across England, Scotland and Wales, Starmer’s colleagues seem primed to oust him. Seldon’s biography of Starmer’s predecessor, Rishi Sunak, is due to be published in August. By then, Britain may have a new prime minister – its sixth in seven years. Seldon, 72, fears he may perpetually be playing catch up.
“I’ll be on to ‘Angela Rayner at Number 10’ before too long,” Seldon sighed in an interview with CNN, referring to the Labour lawmaker seen as one of the potential rivals to Starmer as prime minister.
The revolving door of 10 Downing Street has caused many in the country to wonder: Is Britain becoming ungovernable?
Britain’s problems are several. The country never truly recovered from the 2008 financial crisis. Real wages have largely stagnated since, only ticking up more recently in response to the inflationary shocks of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Britain’s departure from the European Union, meanwhile, is estimated to have lowered GDP per person by as much as 8%. Productivity growth is tepid. Debt has crept up, meaning Britain’s government bonds have the highest yields among Group of Seven (G7) nations. Britain has the highest industrial electricity costs in that group, too.
Its electoral system is also showing strain. Britain’s first-past-the-post system functions best when there are two dominant parties. For more than a century, those were Labour and the Conservatives. But the decline of that duopoly has effectively turned British politics from a two-way into a five-way fight in England, and a six-way fight in Scotland and Wales, as the two historic parties now compete against the centrist Liberal Democrats, the ultra-progressive Greens, the hard-right Reform UK, as well as nationalist parties that support Scottish and Welsh independence, which could lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom. Scotland has been part of the UK since 1707, and Wales since 1536.
Against such a tide of troubles, there is a temptation in Britain to say that good government has become near impossible, and that any leader would struggle to swim against the current.
But, Seldon believes, this despair only exculpates Starmer – and his less-than-impressive predecessors.
“Britain is categorically not ungovernable, although some recent prime ministers (PMs) have tried darn hard to make it so,” he told CNN.
Seldon sees a string of failings among Starmer’s Conservative forerunners. Painting with a broad brush, he describes Boris Johnson, with his penchant for big government and his concern for “left-behind” regions, as “Rooseveltian” – but only in “ambition, not delivery.”
Liz Truss, in her ideological fervor for libertarian economics, was “Reaganite,” said Seldon, continuing to compare British prime ministers to American presidents. Seeking to reverse Johnson’s excesses, Truss introduced an unf