By Natasha Bertrand, Haley Britzky, Zachary Cohen, CNN
(CNN) — US intelligence indicates that China is preparing to deliver new air defense systems to Iran within the next few weeks, according to three people familiar with recent intelligence assessments.
It would be a provocative move considering Beijing said it helped broker the fragile ceasefire agreement that paused the war between Iran and the US earlier this week. President Donald Trump is also set to visit China early next month for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The intelligence also underscores how Iran may be using the ceasefire as an opportunity to replenish certain weapons systems with the help of key foreign partners.
Two of the sources told CNN there are indications that Beijing is working to route the shipments through third countries to mask their true origin.
The systems Beijing is preparing to transfer are shoulder-fired anti-air missile systems known as MANPADs, the sources said, which posed an asymmetric threat to low-flying US military aircraft throughout the course of the five-week war and could again if the ceasefire falls apart.
A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington said, “China has never provided weapons to any party to the conflict; the information in question is untrue.”
“As a responsible major country, China consistently fulfills its international obligations. We urge the U.S. side to refrain from making baseless allegations, maliciously drawing connections, and engaging in sensationalism; we hope that relevant parties will do more to help de-escalate tensions.”
Earlier this week, an embassy spokesperson told CNN that since the US-Israel-Iran war began Beijing had “been working to help bring about a ceasefire and end to the conflict.”
Trump indicated during a press conference on Monday that the F-15 fighter jet shot down over Iran last week was hit by a “handheld shoulder missile, [a] heat-seeking missile,” and Iran said it had used a “new” air defense system to hit the jet without providing more details. It’s unclear if that system was Chinese manufactured.
Shipping MANPADS to Iran would mark an escalation in China’s support for the country since the US and Israel launched their joint military campaign in February.
Chinese companies have continued to sell the Iranians sanctioned dual-use technology that enables the Iran to keep building weapons and enhance its navigation systems, sources said, but the Chinese government directly transferring weapons systems would mark a new level of assistance.
Trump is expected to meet with Xi next month in Beijing, and the White House said on Wednesday that high-level talks had taken place between the US and China as Iran ceasefire negotiations played out earlier this week.
One of the sources familiar with the intelligence said China sees no real strategic value in overtly entering the conflict and trying to protect Iran against the US and Israel, which they know would be unwinnable. Instead, Beijing is trying to position itself as a continued friend to Iran — whose oil it heavily depends upon — while remaining outwardly neutral so they can maintain deniability after the war is over.
Sources said the Chinese could also make the argument that air defense systems are defensive rather than offensive in nature, differentiating their support from that of Russia. Moscow has been providing support to the Iranian regime throughout the course of the war in the form of intelligence sharing that has helped Iran proactively target US troops and assets in the Middle East, CNN has reported.
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