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La situación en Medio Oriente en el vigésimo día de la guerra de Estados Unidos e Israel con Irán

Kraig Pakulski 0 12 Article rating: No rating

Por Jessie Yeung, CNN

Casi tres semanas después del inicio de la guerra en Medio Oriente, Irán está intensificando sus ataques contra infraestructuras críticas en los estados árabes del Golfo, lo que amenaza la seguridad energética mundial y provoca que los precios mundiales del petróleo se disparen aún más.

El presidente Donald Trump intentó desvincular a su administración de los ataques de Israel contra los yacimientos de gas de Irán, pero advirtió que si el país persa continuaba atacando a Qatar, Estados Unidos “destruiría” por completo el yacimiento de South Pars.

Esto es lo que debes saber el día 20.

  • Ataques a la energía del Golfo: Los precios del petróleo se dispararon el miércoles hasta los US$ 110 por barril, tras los ataques a la infraestructura energética en los países del Golfo Pérsico. Irán bombardeó la planta de procesamiento de gas natural de Ras Laffan, en Qatar, un importante centro energético, dos veces en 12 horas, causando “daños considerables”. En Abu Dhabi, las operaciones de gas en instalaciones energéticas cruciales se suspendieron temporalmente después de que restos de misiles cayeran sobre ellas.
  • Amenaza saudí: Arabia Saudita también interceptó drones, incluido uno que se dirigía a una instalación de gas, y advirtió el jueves que Riad se reserva el derecho de emprender acciones militares contra Irán si fuera necesario. La reunión de doce ministros de Asuntos Exteriores árabes e islámicos dio como resultado una declaración conjunta en la que se instó a Irán a cesar inmediatamente sus agresiones.
  • Declaraciones de Trump: Trump afirmó el miércoles por la noche que Israel había atacado violentamente el yacimiento de gas natural South Pars de Irán, el más grande del mundo. Aseguró que desconocía los planes de su aliado y prometió que este país no volvería a atacar el yacimiento a menos que fuera provocado.
  • Medidas diplomáticas: Qatar expulsó a los agregados militares y de seguridad de Irán tras el ataque en Ras Laffan, ordenándoles que abandonaran el país en un plazo de 24 horas.
  • Evaluación de inteligencia: Un día después de su renuncia, el exjefe antiterrorista de la administración Trump, Joe Kent, afirmó que no existía información de inteligencia que sugiriera que Irán fuera a lanzar un ataque sorpresa de gran envergadura, similar al del 11-S o Pearl Harbor. Añadió que Irán no estaba a punto de obtener un arma nuclear y que, en su opinión, Israel había involucrado a Estados Unidos en el conflicto. Mientras tanto, funcionarios de la administración, durante una audiencia pública celebrada el miércoles, contradijeron repetidamente las afirmaciones de Trump sobre la amenaza que representa Irán o no las respaldaron con pruebas.
  • Otro funcionario fallecido: Irán confirmó la muerte de otro alto funcionario, el ministro de Inteligencia Esmail Khatib, quien murió en el último ataque de Israel contra la cúpula dirigente del país.
  • Votación en el Senado: Los republicanos rechazaron nuevamente una re

The US is re-evaluating the threat of Chinese military action in Taiwan

Kraig Pakulski 0 24 Article rating: No rating

By Stephanie Yang, CNN

Taipei, Taiwan (CNN) — Recent years have brought heightened concern in Western intelligence circles that China could invade the self-governing island of Taiwan as early as next year. But the United States now says an imminent attack is unlikely.

An annual threat assessment by the US intelligence community said Beijing prefers to achieve so-called unification without the use of force, and recognizes that an amphibious assault would be extremely difficult and carry a high risk of failure, especially if the US intervenes.

“Beijing almost certainly will consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, including PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the US will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf,” the report said, referring to China’s People’s Liberation Army.

In 2021, Admiral Philip Davidson, then in charge of the Indo-Pacific Command, said China wanted to be ready to invade Taiwan in the next six years. The premise that Beijing could take action in 2027 became known as the “Davidson window,” fueling greater urgency in Taiwan’s military reform.

The updated analysis comes as President Donald Trump has sought to postpone an important meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing, during which one of the top priorities was expected to be US policy toward Taiwan.

Despite having never controlled Taiwan, China’s ruling Communist Party has vowed to “reunify” with the self-governing democracy by 2049, by force if necessary, as part of its plan for “national rejuvenation.”

While the US does not maintain official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, and has long declined to say whether it will send military support in event of conflict, Chinese officials have previously criticized the US as interfering in its internal affairs on Taiwan, and have condemned proposed arms sales that could total $25 billion.

China has also often emphasized its preference for peaceful unification. Still, the growing frequency of Chinese military incursions around the island and worsening relations between Beijing and Taipei have raised fears that Xi might ultimately resort to force.

Preparing for war

While the latest US assessment mitigates previous assumptions, analysts said it won’t significantly impact efforts by the US, China and Taiwan to prepare for the possibility of conflict.

The 2026 report said China’s military is still making “steady but uneven progress on capabilities that it would use in any attempt to seize Taiwan and deter – and, if necessary, defeat – U.S. military intervention.”

In Taiwan, which has extended its conscription mandates and increased defense spending, confidence in US military support in the event of war with China has waned since Trump took office. The escalating attacks on Iran – to which Trump is now considering deploying thousands of US troops, according to the Reuters news agency – could also draw attention and resources away from security in Asia.

“Taiwan still views China’s growing military capabilities and the implications extending from US military adventurism, as demonstrated by the Trump administration’s military campaigns in Venezuela and Iran, as a sign that great powers may increasingly believe ‘might is right,’” said William Yang, a senior analyst at International Crisis Group.

At the same time, China’s appetite for conflict has likely been dampened by struggles to support its slowing domestic economy, as well as a string of dismissals in the top echelons of its own military.

“In purging the highest levels of the military, the leadership has effectively set aside the option of an invasion for at least the next two years,” said Amanda Hsiao, China director for Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm. “Beijing continues to see the cost of an i

Six weeks after Nancy Guthrie vanished, the spotlight on Tucson dims as the cloud of uncertainty lingers

Kraig Pakulski 0 21 Article rating: No rating

By Celina Tebor, CNN

Tucson, Arizona (CNN) — The residents of the Catalina Foothills are friendly, offering “good mornings” and waves to passersby on the street.

They’re also private: Towering saguaro cacti and long, winding driveways shroud nearly every house in the affluent neighborhood north of Tucson.

For those who chose the hillside community for the quiet escape it offers, that privacy has been encroached upon over much of the past six weeks.

Swarms of media outlets and law enforcement officers descended on the community when Nancy Guthrie, the mother of “Today” show anchor Savannah Guthrie, went missing from her home on February 1, the suspected victim of an abduction.

The case quickly captured the attention of the nation, attracting intense media coverage and obsession from online sleuths as questions – some still yet to be answered – swirled about ransom notes and DNA from discarded gloves.

But in her own neighborhood, almost no one wants to talk about Guthrie.

“It’s an enigma,” said David Holter, among the few people around here willing to talk about her mysterious disappearance.

Holter, who lives about a mile away, remembers a suitcase stolen off a porch and a bicycle swiped. That’s the extent of the crime he could recall in the Catalina Foothills in the decades he’s lived here.

But the atmosphere has shifted.

“I’ve been hearing neighbors talk about putting safe rooms in their house,” since Guthrie’s disappearance, Holter said.

This weekday morning in the tucked-away neighborhood is quiet, the silence only broken by chirping birds or the wind blowing against the dry vegetation. No law enforcement vehicles, no news crews. And Holter’s wife, for one, is glad.

“It’s enough already,” she said, exasperated, as she walked off.

Media outlets pull up stakes

Indeed, the seemingly endless lines of cars and news vans parked outside Guthrie’s home during the early days of the investigation are gone, replaced by orange cones along the road shoulder. Savannah Guthrie has too returned to New York City from her native Tucson.

In the dusty foothills, there are parking restrictions within a half mile in every direction of the Guthrie house, with A-frame stands warning the Pima County Sheriff’s Department will strictly enforce the prohibitions.

Under a “no trespassing” sign staked in front of the house, another sign reads: “Dear media, This neighborhood needs space to process, heal and gather in privacy as a loving community. Please cover this tragedy from elsewhere so that we may have some privacy, space, and dignity.”

There are no national – or local – media outlets setting up for live broadcasts on this searing hot afternoon. But there is John DePetro, an independent journalist livestreaming on TikTok, who could recall with remarkable precision where each outlet was stationed at the height of the frenzy.

“There was NewsNation over there,” he said, pointing to the side of the road. “’Fox and Friends’ next to them.”

“Whatever MSNBC is now,” he continued, pointing a finger at a different spot on the road each time he rattled off an outlet. “ABC – ‘Good Morning America,’ Aaron Katersky – CNN on the corner, NBC next to them, and then stations from LA and local stations.”

Gone, too, is the heavy law enforcement presence that for days scoured every square inch of Nancy Guthrie’s property, which spans thousands of square feet.

The most consistent visitors now

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