Por Elisabeth Buchwald, CNN

Desde que Estados Unidos e Israel atacaron a Irán, el aumento repentino de los precios del petróleo y del gas se ha convertido en una preocupación importante tanto para los mercados como para los consumidores. Pero esto es solo el comienzo de una larga lista de bienes que podrían encarecerse.

Con el aumento repentino de los precios del petróleo, el costo del transporte de bienes físicos alrededor del mundo ya ha aumentado y se prevé que siga aumentando a medida que se prolongue la guerra.

Y dado que muchas empresas ya están absorbiendo la mayor parte del costo de los aranceles promulgados por el Gobierno de Trump durante el último año, tienen poco margen de maniobra para asumir mayores costos de transporte, afirmó Brian Bethune, profesor de economía del Boston College.

“Si observamos que los precios (del petróleo) se mantienen altos durante un tiempo, veremos un shock de costos persistente”, afirmó.

Las tarifas de envío se determinan en gran medida por los precios del diésel. Por ejemplo, se aplica un recargo por combustible del 21,5 % para FedEx Ground y entregas a domicilio cuando el precio del diésel alcanza al menos los US$ 3,55 por galón.

Al 9 de marzo, el diésel costaba US$ 4,86 por galón, casi US$ 1 más que hace una semana, según datos de la Administración de Información Energética de EE.UU. Esto significa que se aplicará un recargo por combustible del 24,75 % durante la semana siguiente.

Existe una estructura similar en todos los principales medios de transporte (aéreo, ferroviario y marítimo) según el combustible utilizado y su precio.

Los supermercados son uno de los primeros lugares donde los consumidores verán los efectos del aumento de los precios del combustible, especialmente en los pasillos de frutas y verduras, carnes y lácteos, según Deborah Weinswig, directora ejecutiva y fundadora de Coresight Research, un grupo de investigación y asesoramiento sobre cadenas de suministro y comercio minorista.

Cuanto menos estable sea un producto, menos podrán las empresas almacenarlo y más vulnerable será a las subidas de precios.

Fuera de los supermercados, el aumento de precios tardará más en aparecer, añadió Weinswig. Los aranceles del presidente Donald Trump del año pasado impulsaron a las empresas a acumular inventario antes de la entrada en vigor de los nuevos impuestos, lo que significa que cuentan con abundantes suministros.

Es probable que las empresas exploren otras maneras de afrontar el aumento de los costos del combustible.

Cuando estalló la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania en 2022, los precios del petróleo se dispararon de forma similar, agravando la ya elevada inflación.

En aquel entonces, muchas empresas optaron por reducir el tamaño de sus productos manteniendo el mismo precio, una práctica conocida como “sweepflation”, que consiste en un aumento de precios.

Pero como los consumidores ya están empezando a recortar gastos, las empresas podrían tener más dificultades para que estos cambios encubiertos los perciban. Esto podría llevarlas a recurrir a una medida más drástica para reducir costos: despedir trabajadores.

“No hay nada gratis. Aparecerá en algún momento”, declaró Bethune a CNN.

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By John Towfighi, CNN

New York (CNN) — Stocks fell and oil prices surged Thursday as the war with Iran continued to stoke fears of higher energy costs and disruptions to the global economy.

The major US stock indexes were down 1% or more, extending a recent bout of volatility. The Dow fell 655 points, or 1.38%. The S&P 500 was down by 1.3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite sank 1.66%.

US crude oil prices surged 9.8%, to $95.83 per barrel. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose 9.3%, to $100 per barrel.

Oil prices climbed as Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first public message, warning that the crucial Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as a “tool of pressure.” The message, read on Iran’s state television by an anchor, also said that all US bases in the region “will be attacked” unless they shut down.

The Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway off Iran’s coast through which 20% of global oil consumption flows, has been effectively closed since the war began. That has sent oil prices soaring and dimmed the outlook for stocks across the globe.

“The implicit closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the hinge factor for global markets,” Felix Vezina-Poirier, chief strategist at BCA Research, said in a note.

The Strait of Hormuz has become a flashpoint in the war, with US officials demanding it reopens and the Iranian regime doubling down on preventing business as usual.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Thursday that the strait must ultimately reopen as the United States continues military operations in Iran.

“Now the Strait of Hormuz needs to be and will be reopened,” Wright said on “CNN News Central.”

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil report Thursday that the Middle East conflict is “creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”

US Treasury yields moved higher as investors recalibrated expectations for potentially higher inflation caused by higher energy prices. The 10-year yield rose to 4.24%, its highest level since early February.

The US dollar strengthened against other major currencies, benefitting from safe haven demand. The US dollar index was up 0.4%, hitting its highest level this year.

Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX, jumped 9%, reflecting the heightened volatility in markets. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index slipped into “extreme fear.”

“For now, oil remains the primary market driver, with developments around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz acting as either an accelerator or a brake on risk appetite,” Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, said in a note.

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CNN’s Ivana Kottasová and Alejandra Jaramillo contributed reporting.

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By Mohammed Tawfeeq, Sandra Gonzalez, CNN

(CNN) — Two Oscar-nominated Iranian films will have a moment on the global stage at Sunday’s Academy Awards as Hollywood contends with how to address a fraught political reality on a night often seen as a celebration of escapism.

The films, documentary feature “Cutting Through Rocks” and best international film nominee “It Was Just an Accident,” have propelled Iran into one of its most prominent awards seasons in recent memory. The former is the first Iranian documentary ever nominated for best documentary feature.

The nominations arrived in January against an already charged political backdrop, as the Iranian government violently cracked down on protesters, killing thousands. When Hollywood’s biggest stars gather Sunday for the annual awards show it will be more than two weeks into an unpopular war launched against the country by the US and Israel.

Mohammadreza Eyni and Sara Khaki, the husband-and-wife directing duo behind “Cutting Through Rocks,” said celebrating the documentary’s success had been difficult amid the turmoil, speaking to CNN’s Chief International Anchor Christiane Amanpour before the start of the war.

The film is about a rural midwife and motorcycle rider named Sara Shahverdi who becomes the first woman to run for government in her village, fighting for the rights of women and girls. It offers a glimpse into the generational changes that were happening inside Iran.

“It was not an easy journey for Shahverdi, but these small sparks of hope keep me hopeful about what the future can bring,” Khaki said, speaking before the war.

“The only thing that gives me hope about the future of our country is its people — people like Sara Shahverdi in the film, and people like Sara Khaki behind the camera, who share the same mission of bringing change to their communities,” her husband, Eyni, added.

Doing the rounds of awards season has been exceedingly difficult amid the growing uncertainty. Filmmaker Jafar Panahi, whose thriller “It Was Just an Accident” centers on a group of people confronting the man they suspected of torturing them in a Tehran prison, has faced impossible situations on his promotional tour.

Speaking to CNN amid the deadly protests in January, Panahi said that even while he was promoting his film, his “heart and mind are there,” in Tehran.

En route to the Golden Globes later that month, he sat in traffic watching video of a morgue near Tehran overflowing with the bodies of protesters, he recently told NBC News.

“Security did not allow us to leave our cars, and I had a sense of suffocation,” Panahi said. Once he reached the red carpet, he said, “I really did not even have the ability to speak. I kept stepping out and trying to create a balance in my mind. I kept going out to smoke.”

He found out about the US-Israeli strikes while traveling from Barcelona to New York to tape an interview on “The Daily Show.”

Panahi’s own history informs his work. He has faced detention, jail and a ban on making films, traveling, and speaking to the media.

“It Was Just an Accident” is his first movie since his travel and filmmaking ban was lifted. It won the Palme d’Or at Cannes last May and was nominated for four Golden Globes.

Iranian filmmakers have had whirlwind awards seasons before. From the internationally acclaimed work of Asghar Farhadi, whose fi