By Tal Shalev, CNN
(CNN) — As waves of protests have tested the Iranian regime’s ability to manage dissent, the country with arguably the most to gain has been waiting in the wings, reluctant to intervene even when its regional adversary is at its most vulnerable point in years.
After months of publicly threatening Iran, Israel has gone quiet, waiting to see how the protest movement develops and giving US President Donald Trump space to make his own decision on whether to take action.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has held several security consultations on the situation in Iran in recent days, according to a source familiar with the matter. But the longtime leader, who launched a surprise attack on Iran last summer, has instructed his ministers to avoid public statements about the country.
At the beginning of the protests, Science Minister Gila Gamliel posted a selfie on X wearing a “Make Iran Great Again” cap, tagging Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last monarch, as well as a video message supporting the protesters. The Prime Minister’s Office has advised the ministers to remain silent at least twice since, according to the source.
‘Keep quiet’
At the weekly government meeting on Sunday, Netanyahu said only that Israel was “closely monitoring” events in Iran and supported the protesters’ “struggle for freedom.” There was no threat directed at Tehran or at the country’s supreme leader.
“The overall instruction is to keep quiet,” an Israeli official told CNN. “The understanding is that if we touch, we will only interfere.”
The protests began two weeks ago over rampant inflation, but they soon transformed into widespread demonstrations against the Iranian regime, spreading to more than 180 cities and towns across the country. The government has tried to divert attention away from the root causes of the protests, accusing the US and Israel of fomenting the unrest.
For Israel to interfere now risks giving Tehran exactly what it needs most: the ability to deflect blame away from ongoing domestic problems and turn attention to a foreign adversary.
“From Israel’s viewpoint, this is not the right time to intervene,” a former senior Israeli security official told CNN. “There’s no reason to disrupt the internal weakening of the regime or to give it a pretext to rally domestic support.”
Yet, even as the politicians maintain their public silence, the unfolding drama in Iran’s streets has dominated Israeli news coverage for the past two weeks, renewing anxieties about potential escalation, shaped by the memories of Iranian ballistic missile attacks during the 12-day war in June.
Municipalities in central Israel have informed citizens that shelters remain open as a precaution, while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) moved to downplay concerns about an imminent attack. “In recent days, many rumors have been circulating in light of the situation in Iran,” IDF spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin wrote on X on Monday, reiterating the military’s position. “The prote