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A year ago, housing economists made bold forecasts about 2025. Mortgage rates would stabilize. Inventory would finally loosen. First-time buyers would keep struggling.
The forecasters got far more right than wrong. While some predictions didn’t pan out as expected, most of 2025’s major housing trends unfolded as anticipated, with the market showing modest but real signs of improvement. NewHomeSource, a new home listings site with customer reviews, examines which 2025 housing market predictions proved accurate.
What the Experts Got Right
1. Mortgage Rates Stabilized Near 6%
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicted rates would hover around 6%, and they nailed it. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.72% for the year and currently sits at 6.19%. It’s not the dramatic drop buyers hoped for, but stability mattered more, allowing both sides to make moves with greater confidence.
2. Housing Inventory Finally Increased
Forecasters expected the lock-in effect to ease, and it did. Homeowners with low mortgage rates who were choosing not to sell to avoid trading their rate for a higher one finally felt safe enough to start selling. Inventory jumped 27% to 33% year over year. Twelve states now have more homes on the market than before the COVID-19 pandemic.
3. First-Time Buyers Struggled Even More
Affordability challenges kept first-time buyers sidelined. Their market share dropped to a record low of 21%, down from 24%. That’s the lowest share since 1981.
Those who did succeed often took creative approaches, said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at NAR.
“Some savvy first-time buyers saved by moving in with family before purchasing and saved on rent, while others doubled up with roommates to purchase a home,” Lautz said.
4. All-Cash Buyers Dominated
Among repeat buyers, 30% paid all cash, marking an all-time high. The prevalence of cash purchases reflected broader wealth dynamics and the ongoing affordability challenges in the housing market.
“Home buyers who successfully entered the home buying market did so relying on wealth such as housing equity from their past home, financial assets from stocks or retirement savings, often a gift or loan from a friend or family member played a role,” Lautz said.
5. Home Prices Rose Modestly
Both NAR and the Mortgage Bankers Asso