By Tal Shalev, CNN
(CNN) — The incoming director of Israel’s Mossad spy agency believed a war with Iran could trigger the swift collapse of the regime, according to three Israeli sources familiar with internal consultations – an assessment that has failed to materialize after more than 40 days of fighting.
Roman Gofman, currently serving as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military secretary, told the Israeli leader in planning discussions that the Iranian regime could be toppled, a view shared by the agency he is set to lead, and one that proved overly optimistic.
Gofman is slated to assume the post in June for a five-year term, replacing David Barnea, who also believed that a war could topple the Islamic Republic.
Barnea, who has led the Mossad since 2021, played a key advisory role in the lead-up to the US-Israeli strike on Iran on February 28 that began the war, according to two Israeli security sources. The New York Times reported that Barnea pitched Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump on the idea that assassinations of Iran’s leaders, followed by a series of intelligence-led operations, could mobilize the country’s opposition and spark protests, riots, and acts of defiance that would lead to the collapse of the regime.
“The Mossad’s position was that regime change is a likely outcome and that they can make it happen,” one of the Israeli security sources told CNN.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had reservations and was more nuanced in its goals, the source added, instead advocating aiming to weaken the regime and create the conditions for a public revolt. “The Mossad made a series of promises it didn’t deliver,” the source said.
The killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the opening wave of attacks and the subsequent US-Israeli destruction of Iran’s military and government infrastructure have so far failed to bring about any meaningful change in Tehran’s leadership or hardline positions. The new Supreme Leader – the son of the slain ruler – is believed to be more hardline than his father and closer to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Barnea, in his first public statement since the beginning of the war, said Israel’s mission in Iran was incomplete. “We certainly planned for our campaign to continue and to manifest itself even in the period following the strikes in Tehran,” he said, speaking on Israel’s Holocaust Remembrance Day Tuesday. “Our commitment will be fulfilled only when the extremist regime is replaced.”
Severely wounded on October 7
Gofman, 49, was born in Belarus and immigrated to Israel at the age of 14. He spent over three decades in the IDF Armored Corps, holding numerous frontline and command positions.
Severely wounded in battle on October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militants attacked Israel, he has served since his recovery as Netanyahu’s top military aide, and he was involved in all of the key strategic and operational decisions around the region over the past two years, including in Iran, Lebanon, Gaza and Syria. A