By Alicia Wallace, CNN

(CNN) — When contending with years of budget-breaking inflation, there was at least one saving grace: For the past 34 months, the average wage was growing faster than prices were.

That’s expected to change – in short order.

When the Consumer Price Index for March is released on Friday morning, it’s expected to show that US inflation bolted higher – a direct result of the Middle East war’s energy shock.

Economists are estimating that prices leapt 0.9% from February, more than triple the pace seen in January. Such an increase would drive the annual rate of inflation to 3.4% from 2.4%.

In one fell swoop, inflation could be back at a level not seen in nearly two years and Americans’ pay gains would be practically eaten away.

Last month, average hourly wage growth slowed to 3.5%, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed.

“We’ll definitely see elevated prices eating away at people’s paychecks,” Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, told CNN.

An abrupt increase with lasting impacts

The ceasefire reached earlier this week stemmed some fears that the conflict could drastically deepen or even come to a resolution sooner than later. However, uncertainty continues to linger as do the potential inflationary effects.

Even before the war, inflation was running higher than normal, kept elevated by tariff-related price hikes on goods as well as still-strong consumer demand, to a lesser extent, on services.

“Inflation pressures were already building before the war and are now intensifying,” Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, wrote Wednesday.

Prices are expected to rise even faster in the coming months as the war’s aftershocks ripple beyond gas prices and permeate through a host of commonly purchased goods as well as some services.

Sharply rising gas and energy prices are expected to be the biggest contributor to March’s expected jump in inflation, Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNN.

Pantheon is expecting a 23% rise in gas prices, which would be the highest monthly increase on record for the index.

“There’s been bigger energy price shocks in total, but they’ve rippled through over several months,” he said. “This just came through in one month.”

If Pantheon’s math bears out, the increase in gas prices would account for more than two-thirds of the firm’s projected 1% monthly increase in the overall CPI.

It’s an abrupt increase on its own but one that comes with some legs.

“The energy price shock will take many months to play out to other parts of the economy,” Tombs said. “Goods prices won’t change immediately, but after three to six months, you tend to see energy price changes filter through to consumers.”

It’s not just oil

Still, some oil-related price hikes could show up immediately. The CPI data on airfares, for exampl

Por Samantha Delouya y John Towfighi, CNN

La guerra con Irán ha sacudido a Wall Street, elevando el costo de las hipotecas, así como de los préstamos para automóviles y las tarjetas de crédito, lo que encarece la vida cotidiana de los estadounidenses.

Las tasas hipotecarias subieron durante cinco semanas consecutivas después de que comenzó la guerra, aunque bajaron ligeramente esta semana a 6,37 % para la hipoteca fija a 30 años en promedio, según Freddie Mac.

Hace apenas unas semanas, pedir prestado era mucho más barato. A finales de febrero, apenas dos días antes de que Estados Unidos e Israel iniciaran ataques conjuntos contra Irán, la tasa promedio de la hipoteca fija a 30 años cayó a 5,98 %, situándose por debajo del 6 % por primera vez en más de tres años.

Las tasas hipotecarias suelen seguir el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro de Estados Unidos a 10 años, que ha aumentado en el último mes a medida que los inversionistas enfrentan el alza en los precios del petróleo, las preocupaciones sobre la inflación y la posibilidad de un mayor gasto gubernamental para financiar la guerra. Los rendimientos suben cuando los precios de los bonos bajan.

El rendimiento del bono del Tesoro a 10 años pasó de estar por debajo del 4 % a finales de febrero a alcanzar hasta 4,48 % en marzo, antes de situarse alrededor de 4,3 % esta semana. Este rendimiento es una de las tasas de interés más relevantes para la economía, ya que influye fuertemente en las tasas hipotecarias y en una amplia gama de costos de financiamiento para los estadounidenses, así como para las empresas y el Gobierno.

“Los inversionistas ahora están asimilando la posibilidad de una guerra prolongada con Irán y lo que eso significaría para la economía”, dijo Jeffrey Roach, economista jefe de LPL Financial. “Cuanto más se vea afectado el suministro global de petróleo, más probable es que aumenten las presiones inflacionarias”.

A continuación, cómo la guerra está encareciendo el crédito para los estadounidenses:

Incluso con la leve caída de esta semana, un comprador típico que fijó su tasa hace unas semanas ahorraría decenas de miles de dólares a lo largo del préstamo en comparación con alguien que contrate una hipoteca hoy.

Por ejemplo, en una vivienda de US$ 500.000, con un pago inicial del 20 %, un comprador que aseguró una hipoteca fija a 30 años en febrero, cuando la tasa promedio era de 5,98%, pagaría unos US$ 28.700 al año en capital e intereses. Con la tasa promedio actual de 6,37 %, el pago anual por ese mismo préstamo sería de US$ 29.931. Aunque la diferencia puede parecer pequeña, se acumula: a lo largo de los 30 años, el comprador actual pagaría más de US$ 36.000 adicionales en comparación con alguien que compró en febrero.

“A los prestatarios no les va a gustar eso”, dijo Larry White, profesor de economía en NYU Stern. “Eso añade una cantidad nada despreciable al pago mensual de la hipoteca”.

Aun así, pese al aumento reciente, las tasas hipotecarias siguen siendo más bajas que hace un año, cuando el promedio a 30 años era de 6,62 %.

El aumento en los rendimientos del Tesoro también puede afectar otras tasas, como las de los préstamos para autos, ya que suelen seguir los rendimientos de bonos a corto plazo.

Los rendimientos de los bonos a dos y cinco años se dispararon en marzo y se mantienen cerca de sus niveles más altos desde agosto.

Las tasas promedio de los préstamos a cinco años apenas han variado durante la guerra, según datos de Bankrate, pero los rendimientos elevados por más tiempo podrían mantenerlas altas tras haber aumentado en años recientes.

“Probablemente estamos viendo una meseta”, dijo Stephen Kates, analista financiero de Bankrate.

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By Kaanita Iyer, CNN

(CNN) — Young, eligible men will be automatically registered for the military draft pool starting in December as part of a measure tucked into the annual defense policy bill Congress signed into law late last year.

Men ages 18 to 26 must already register for selective service in case a draft is required. The last time a draft was in effect was February 1973, during the Vietnam War.

Automatic registration is already in place in 46 states and territories, according to the Selective Service System’s 2024 report. The SSS proposed a rule to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs late last month to implement the practice nationwide.

The nationwide measure has no connection to the ongoing war with Iran and was passed with bipartisan support months before the current conflict with the country. But the Trump administration has declined to rule out the possibility of putting US troops on the ground, and the war has led to renewed attention on the draft policy.

CNN has reached out to the Selective Service for more information about the proposed rule.

Here’s what you need to know about automatic Selective Service registration.

Who will be registered and how will it work?

According to the National Defense Authorization Act, which President Donald Trump signed into law in December, the automatic registration will apply to male US citizens and “every other male person” in the country between the ages of 18 and 26.

The mandatory registration applies to green-card holders, refugees, asylum seekers and undocumented men. Those on a nonimmigrant visas are exempt.

Currently, in states that haven’t enacted automatic registration, men must register “within 30 days of (their) 18th birthday,” according to the SSS website. The agency “accepts late registrations up until” a man’s 26th birthday.

It is a felony to not register for selective service and can result in the loss of certain benefits, like some student loans and federal jobs. It’s also a violation of the Military Selective Service Act, which could lead to imprisonment up to five years and a fine of up to $250,000.

Some places, like Arizona and Delaware, and Washington, DC, automatically register eligible men when they apply for driver’s license or another form of state identification. Meanwhile, in New York, the application for driver’s license includes a section that allows eligible men to register for selective service.

According to the SSS’ 2023 report, over 60% of registration came from state motor vehicle departments.

Democratic Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, who sponsored the automatic selective service language, told CNN in a statement, “Making registration automatic, not only saves taxpayer dollars by eliminating the need to advertise but finally ensures that young men are not unknowingly penalized.”

In the statement, Houlahan stressed that the measure has bipartisan support.

The NDAA passed with bipartisan votes in the House and Senate.

What happens in a draft?

Co

CNN

By Betsy Klein, Donald Judd, CNN

(CNN) — First lady Melania Trump blasted “lies linking me to the disgraceful Jeffrey Epstein” in extraordinary and rare remarks from the White House Thursday, attempting to distance herself from the convicted sex offender while calling on Congress to hold hearings allowing his victims to testify on Capitol Hill.

That call for action directly undercut ongoing messaging from her husband and the West Wing, renewing attention on a topic that was fading from public discourse amid the war with Iran. President Donald Trump and his top lieutenants have sought to downplay Epstein and his victims, repeatedly and publicly stating that the country is ready to move on.

President Trump was aware his wife planned to make Thursday’s statement, a person familiar with the matter said.

“I have never been friends with Epstein. Donald and I were invited to the same parties as Epstein from time to time, since overlapping in social circles is common in New York City and Palm Beach,” the first lady said in remarks to reporters. “To be clear, I never had a relationship with Epstein or his accomplice, [Ghislaine] Maxwell.”

Melania Trump called on Congress to provide a forum for Epstein’s victims to testify on Capitol Hill.

“I call on Congress to provide the women who have been victimized by Epstein with a public hearing specifically centered around the survivors, give these victims their opportunity to testify under oath in front of Congress with the power of sworn testimony,” she said.

“Each and every woman should have her day to tell her story in public, if she wishes, and then her testimony should be permanently entered into the congressional record.”

Former Attorney General Pamela Bondi, who was fired in part over her handling of the Epstein files, was asked to apologize to Epstein survivors during a February congressional hearing and declined to do so.

Melania Trump also sought to downplay her relationship with Maxwell, Epstein’s associate who was convicted of sex trafficking. CNN had inquired with her office in February about a friendly 2002 email exchange between the two women — which was released as part of a tranche of documents pertaining to the Epstein investigation — but did not receive a response. Trump signed that email, “Love, Melania” and Maxwell responded, calling her “sweet pea.”

On Thursday, Trump characterized the email as “casual” and a “polite reply.”

This story has been updated with additional information.

Kevin Liptak contributed to this report.

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