By Sol Amaya, Gonzalo Zegarra, Alessandra Freitas, CNN
The chaos unleashed by the killing of Mexican drug lord Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera has sparked fears that the country could face a new wave of violence just as it enters its final preparations to host the world’s biggest sports event.
Mexico is expecting to welcome more than 5 million visitors for the FIFA World Cup, which it is co-hosting with the US and Canada, and will be the center of global attention when the opening match kicks off at the Banorte Stadium in Mexico City on June 11.
But the killing of Oseguera, who led the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, has put Mexico – and Jalisco state in particular – into the headlines for all the wrong reasons. His death on Sunday at the hands of the Mexican military sparked days of violence, much of it centered in Jalisco, as gang members of one of the country’s most powerful criminal groups clashed with security forces, burning buses and businesses. So dire was the situation that the US State Department issued shelter-in-place warnings to travelers.
While that initial burst of violence has subsided – President Claudia Sheinbaum insisted Tuesday there was “no risk” to fans, while FIFA president Gianni Infantino said he had “complete confidence” that everything would “turn out for the best” – not everyone is convinced.
Some analysts fear a succession war among the commanders of the Jalisco cartel is now likely – a possibility acknowledged by Mexican authorities, with Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch saying Monday his team would be “very attentive” to “any type of reaction or restructuring within the cartel” and that there was “particular monitoring of several leaders.”
Security analyst David Saucedo told CNN that such a scenario was highly likely – and warned that even if factions in the cartel could come to an agreement, that still might not rule out the possibility of further violence.
If the surviving leadership of the cartel interpreted the operation against “El Mencho” as an existential threat to its operations, the group might feel it had no option but to up the stakes.
“(The cartel) may assume a posture of total war against the Mexican state,” Saucedo said.
Epicenter of the violence
Mexico is to host 13 of the World Cup’s 104 matches, but its first test will come months before the official kick-off when it hosts playoff matches and warm-up games next month.
The Estadio Akron in Guadalajara – the capital of Jalisco – is to host playoffs between Congo, Jamaica and New Caledonia from March 26-31, while Estadio Banorte, in Mexico City, is to host a friendly between Mexico and Portugal on March 28.
While the Portuguese Football Federation has indicated the match in Mexico City will go ahead as planned – pending its ongoing assessment – more concerning to some analysts are those taking place in Jalisco, the epicenter of the recent violence. In addition to the playoffs, four World Cup matches are scheduled to take place in Jalisco’s capital of Guadalajara – involving the national team, South Korea, Colombia, Uruguay, Spain, and two others that will be determined by playoffs. Nearly 3 million tourists are expected to visit Jalisco, which borders the Pacific Ocean and is famous for tequila and mariachi music, during the tournament.
Following the postponement of some Mexican league matches after El Mencho’s death, Jalisco Governor Pablo Lemus insisted the World Cup games would go ahead as planned. “There is absolutely no intention on FIFA’s part to remove any venues from Mexico. The three venues remain completely firm,” Lemus said.
A challenge for Mexican government
Victoria Dittmar, a researcher at InSight Crime in Mexico City, said that guaranteeing security in the