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As trade tensions cooled and the policy fog lifted, investors’ attention as we exited 2025 gravitated to a single question: Are we in the midst of an AI bubble?

To evaluate where we are in the cycle, we need to understand the anatomy of a bubble. Range adapted Ray Dalio’s classic six-part “Bubble Indicator” to diagnose the current landscape.

The diagnosis? There are a few areas of concern in public markets—mainly around increasing use of leverage—but the bubble indicators are more mixed than alarming. One hypothesis is that the bigger vulnerability sits in private markets, where valuations are harder to validate and outcomes are more sensitive to financing conditions.

Range

The Outlook for 2026 — Turbulence Along The Way

An AI bubble-pop is unlikely to derail U.S. market performance in 2026. But there are areas experts are watching closely, and the ecosystem is fragile. AI-driven leadership may continue this year, but with heightened volatility.

AI investment and AI-led performance will likely continue (with air pockets)

AI is still in an investment upcycle: Capex, model deployment, and enterprise adoption should keep advancing. But with the ecosystem changing rapidly, we may see “two steps forward, one step back” trading in 2026—periodic resets driven by guidance, competitive surprises, extended retail positioning or changes in public sentiment around AI. The theme can keep working even if the ride is bumpier.

Private markets look most vulnerable to bubble dynamics

The highest bubble risk isn’t necessarily in liquid mega-cap equities—it’s in areas where:

• Price discovery is slower.
• Financials are murkier.
• Financing terms can change quickly.

Private markets, including venture, growth equity, and private credit, seem particularly vulnerable to AI-related hiccups. If we see a few high-profile down rounds, a stalled fundraise, or stress in private credit tied to AI-adjacent assets, the reset could spill over into public markets—driving volatility even if the fundamentals of the public AI leaders remain intact.

Overbuilding risk rises as the cycle matures

History says that major infrastructure waves tend to be temporarily overbuilt. If investment accelerates faster than near-term monetization, markets can enter a “digestion” phase—where returns are delayed. That’s a volatility risk, not necessarily a secular thesis-break.

Disclosures:

This communication contains forward-looking statements that reflect Range Advisory, LLC’s (“Range”) current views, expectations, beliefs and/or projections about future events or results. Forward-looki

Rido // Shutterstock

The largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history is here. According to the Federal Reserve, Americans born before 1965 hold more than $105 trillion, or 63%, of household wealth in the U.S. Over the next two decades, the Great Wealth Transfer will see most of that passed on to younger generations.

Yet, new research reveals that only 14% of American adults have had detailed conversations about inheritance with family members. One thousand U.S. adults were surveyed in November 2025 as part of the Family Wealth in America study conducted by Catalyst Advisory, a Pennsylvania-based wealth transfer advisory firm. The study found that half of Americans have discussed inheritance only in general terms, and more than a third (36%) have never discussed inheritance with family at all.

Despite the trillions of dollars set to change hands in the coming decades, most families simply haven’t talked about inheritance in any meaningful way. Without proper communication and planning, families may experience damaged relationships, financial confusion, frustrating probate delays, unnecessary fees, and estate erosion from taxes that could have been avoided.

Catalyst Advisory

The Silence Problem

The stats are eye-opening. The Family Wealth in America survey revealed that 47% of American adults are uncomfortable or very uncomfortable talking openly about inheritance or finances with family members. And as a result, many simply avoid it altogether.

The lack of communication and planning isn’t limited to those who dread financial conversations. Even among those who claim they’re comfortable discussing money with family, 26% have never actually done it.

Of course, inheritance topics have higher stakes for some families than others. But one of the most alarming details that came out of the study — nearly 1 in 4 adults (22%) who expect or think they may receive an inheritance have never discussed it. Far too many families are relying on assumptions and avoiding crucial conversations.

“By far the biggest issue is confusion,” says Clint Haynes, certified financial planner, founder and president of NextGen Wealth. “Where is everything located? What is going to whom? Why did you make these choices? The list can go on and on. That’s why it’s so important to have these conversations before anything happens, to ensure everyone is on the s

By Leah Dolan, CNN

By the time Nia DaCosta was in 12th grade, she had seen the world — or at least, that’s how it felt. In reality she hadn’t much left her boarding school common room in Dobbs Ferry, NY, but through the power of television DaCosta had been given access to far-flung places like Korea and New Zealand. “I’d become a bit of a tourist in media,” she said in a video call from her home. Television shows and films on DVD and VHS tapes were portals into different cultures, most of them brought into her orbit by her school’s international students. She remembers watching a copy of Bong Joon Ho’s 2006 movie, “The Host,” belonging to one of her Korean classmates, in her dorm room. “That’s how I discovered him as a director,” she said. “I really treasure those moments, man. When you fall in love with an artform.”

Two decades on, it’s DaCosta’s films being devoured by an international audience. At 36, the born-and-raised New Yorker, who is currently living in London, has directed a small stack of blockbusters — amassing some impressive credits along the way. Her second film, “Candyman,” a part-sequel, part-retelling of the 1992 horror classic, was co-written and produced by Jordan Peele and debuted at number one at the US box office in 2021 — making DaCosta the first Black female director ever to have done so. Two years later, she became the first Black woman to direct a Marvel film. “The Marvels,” which starred Brie Larson, Samuel L. Jackson and Zawe Ashton, is the highest-grossing film of all-time directed by a Black woman.

Now, DaCosta is the first woman to direct a film in Danny Boyle’s beloved zombie franchise with “28 Years Later: The Bone Temple,” out in theaters in the US and UK this week. It’s a lot of firsts. “It is kind of funny,” she said of hearing it all said out loud. “If I read that about someone else, I’d be like, ‘Wow.’ You know? But to me, I’m not thinking about any of those things when I try to get a job.”

After graduating from New York University’s Tisch School of the Arts in 2011, DaCosta crossed the pond to study stage writing and broadcast media at London’s Royal Central School of Speech and Drama. She worked as a production assistant on sets for Martin Scorsese, Steve McQueen and Steven Soderbergh, and in 2015 was selected to take part in the Sundance Institute Director’s Lab — a prestigious incubator workshop that has helped develop early works from Quentin Tarantino, Paul Thomas Anderson and Chloé Zhao. In a full circle moment, this month DaCosta will be awarded with the Sundance Institute’s annual Vanguard Award for Fiction.

Her debut film “Little Woods,” starring Tessa Thompson, was released in 2019. “I could sense in her,” said Thompson in a phone call, “that she was a filmmaker who was boundless in terms of the kinds of stories they could tell. I think that’s a rarefied thing, and for that to exist inside of a young Black female filmmaker, I think is just so extraordinary.”

DaCosta first watched Boyle’s 2002 film “28 Days Later” when she was 12 — six years earlier than the British Board of Film Classification would have liked. In it, Cillian Murphy wakes from a coma into a version of Britain ravaged by the “rage” virus, and attempts to locate a group of survivors between encounters with the rabid infected. “I was just so precocious,” remembered DaCosta. “I loved horror, and I was so fascinated by adult things.” DaCosta’s parents divorced when she was nine and she describes herself as a “latch-key kid,” spending long summer afternoons at home alone. “I watched a lot of movies I shouldn’t have watched at that age,” she admits. On the occasion she did have a babysitter, usually DaCosta’s grandmother, the horror-loving child would barely be allowed to watch “The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” for fear of moral corruption. (As a Jehovah’s Witness, DaCosta’s grandmother thought James McAvoy’s turn as a Mr. Tumnus particularly “demonic.”) L

Por Maureen O’Hare, CNN

Cuando se trata de viajar de un país a otro sin restricciones y disfrutar de filas más cortas en los controles fronterizos, existe un nivel élite de pasaportes con más influencia que otros.

Los tres principales pasaportes, según el último informe del Henley Passport Index , son de países asiáticos: Singapur en el número 1 y Japón y Corea del Sur empatados en el número 2.

Los singapurenses disfrutan de acceso sin visa a 192 de los 227 países y territorios monitoreados por el índice, creado por Henley & Partners, firma de asesoría global en ciudadanía y residencia con sede en Londres, y que utiliza datos exclusivos de la Asociación Internacional de Transporte Aéreo.

Japón y Corea del Sur se sitúan justo detrás con acceso sin visado a 188 destinos.

Henley cuenta varios países con la misma puntuación como un solo puesto en su clasificación, por lo que cinco países europeos comparten el tercer puesto: Dinamarca, Luxemburgo, España, Suecia y Suiza. Todos tienen acceso sin visado a 186 países y territorios.

También se trata de una colocación europea en el puesto número 4, con los siguientes países con una puntuación de 185: Austria, Bélgica, Finlandia, Francia, Alemania, Grecia, Irlanda, Italia, Países Bajos y Noruega.

El quinto puesto, con una puntuación de 184, lo ocupan Hungría, Portugal, Eslovaquia, Eslovenia y Emiratos Árabes Unidos.

Los Emiratos Árabes Unidos son el país con el mejor desempeño en los 20 años de historia del Índice de Pasaportes Henley, añadiendo 149 destinos sin visado desde 2006 y ascendiendo 57 puestos en la clasificación. Esto, según el informe, se debe a la “sostenida colaboración diplomática y la liberalización de visados” de los Emiratos Árabes Unidos.

En el sexto puesto se encuentran Croacia, la República Checa, Estonia, Malta, Nueva Zelanda y Polonia. Australia se ha mantenido en el séptimo puesto en esta actualización trimestral, junto con Letonia, Liechtenstein y el Reino Unido.

El Reino Unido es el país con las mayores pérdidas interanuales en el índice, y ahora tiene acceso sin visa a 182 destinos, ocho menos que hace 12 meses.

Canadá, Islandia y Lituania ocupan el puesto número 8, con acceso sin visa a 181 destinos, mientras que Malasia está en el puesto número 9, con una puntuación de 180.

Estados Unidos regresa al puesto número 10, con una puntuación de 179, tras su breve ausencia por primera vez a finales de 2025. Sin embargo, no hay que descorchar la botella todavía. Estados Unidos se encuentra justo detrás del Reino Unido en cuanto a descenso interanual, tras haber perdido el acceso sin visado a siete destinos en los últimos 12 meses.

También sufrió la tercera mayor caída en la clasificación en las últimas dos décadas, después de Ven

Por Danya Gainor y Taylor Romine, CNN

Minnesota e Illinois presentaron demandas por separado este lunes contra la administración Trump, argumentando que la represión inmigratoria del presidente está aterrorizando a sus comunidades y violando la Constitución.

“Hemos visto con horror cómo agentes federales sin control han atacado y aterrorizado agresivamente a nuestras comunidades y vecindarios en Illinois, socavando los derechos constitucionales y amenazando la seguridad pública”, declaró el gobernador de Illinois, J.B. Pritzker.

Chicago, así como Minneapolis y Saint Paul, también fueron parte de las demandas contra la administración Trump.

El Gobierno federal ha intensificado sus operaciones en Chicago y las Ciudades Gemelas, ambos bastiones demócratas, durante el otoño, y los funcionarios locales los han criticado por sembrar el caos y la confusión.

Un tiroteo en el que participaron agentes de ICE la semana pasada en Minneapolis dejó un saldo de una madre de tres hijos muerta y desencadenó una serie de protestas a nivel nacional.

Tanto Minnesota como Illinois están pidiendo una orden judicial para detener las operaciones de inmigración en sus estados.

Las demandas fueron presentadas contra el Departamento de Seguridad Nacional y la Secretaria Kristi Noem, así como contra agencias dependientes, incluidas ICE, Aduanas y Protección Fronteriza de Estados Unidos y la Patrulla Fronteriza de Estados Unidos.

La subsecretaria del DHS, Tricia McLaughlin, afirmó que la Constitución estaba del lado de la administración. El aumento de agentes federales, declaró el lunes en un comunicado en respuesta a las demandas, era necesario porque los políticos santuario de Illinois y Minnesota no estaban protegiendo a sus ciudadanos.

A continuación se presentan las afirmaciones clave de ambas demandas:

Ambas demandas invocan la Décima Enmienda para defender los derechos de sus estados, alegando que la administración Trump ha confiscado recursos locales para su ofensiva contra la inmigración en Minnesota e Illinois.

Las “tácticas ilegales y violentas han perturbado la vida y socavado las libertades y los derechos de propiedad de las personas”, y han impedido que Illinois y Chicago implementen las políticas que sus ciudadanos desean, afirma la demanda.

La demanda de Minnesota enfatizó específicamente la presión sobre los recursos de la policía local.

La denuncia afirma que Minneapolis y Saint Paul se han visto obligados a desviar a sus agentes de sus funciones habituales para responder a incidentes relacionados con la aplicación de las leyes federales de inmigración, lo que socava los esfuerzos locales para proteger a la comunidad.

El despliegue de “agentes federales armados, enmascarados y mal entrenados” es una invasión federal, señaló este lunes el fiscal general de Minnesota, Keith Ellison.

CNN informó a principios de la semana pasada que unos 2.000 agentes federales estaban desplegados en Minneapolis. Esa cifra, según la demanda de Minnesota, “supera con creces el número de policías juramentados que Minneapolis y Saint Paul tienen juntos”.

Los agentes de policía de Minneapolis han trabajado miles de horas extras combinadas como resultado directo de la presencia de agentes federales, según la demanda, lo que le ha costado a la ciudad más de US$ 2 millones en pago de horas extras.

La demanda de Minnesota afirma que la Operación Metro Surge, el esfuerzo de represión migratoria en las Ciudades Gemelas, no es una acción legítima de aplicación de la ley, sino el resultado de un deseo de “tomar represalias” contra el estado liderado por los demócratas.

La denuncia detalla declaraciones despectivas sobre el