By John Towfighi, CNN
New York (CNN) — The S&P 500 just completed a three-peat of double-digit gains. Will 2026 be a four-peat?
After three years of stellar gains, Wall Street widely expects the good times to keep rolling in 2026 — but with varied views on how much stocks will rally. Wall Street forecasts reviewed by CNN show a wide range of targets from strategists, though all estimate positive gains.
The S&P 500 ended 2025 at 6,845.5 points. Analysts at Bank of America expect the benchmark index to hit 7,100 by year-end 2026, suggesting a roughly 3.72% gain from now. Meanwhile, analysts at Deutsche Bank expect the S&P to hit 8,000 points by year-end, suggesting a gain of 16.87%.
When the S&P 500 has gained at least 15% in a year, the following year’s returns have averaged about 8%, according to Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.
The S&P in those years had an average decline of roughly 14% at some point before rebounding and climbing higher. It’s a reminder that stock market gains are not always straightforward, Turnquist said.
US stocks climbed higher in 2025 despite whiplash from tariff announcements, fraught geopolitical tensions, affronts to the Federal Reserve’s independence and nerves about an AI bubble.
The S&P 500 fell as much as 19% in April as President Donald Trump rolled out aggressive tariffs, but the index sharply rebounded, soaring higher after the most severe trade threats were paused. The index ultimately recorded 39 new record highs across the year and gained more than 16%.
Stocks were powered higher by enthusiasm about tech and AI, a detente in severe trade tensions, optimism about Fed rate cuts and robust corporate earnings growth.
Expectations for further Fed rate cuts in 2026 and resilient earnings from corporate America continue to support a strong outlook for stocks.
“This year’s gains have shown that the bull market is all gas, no brakes,” said Hardika Singh, economic strategist at Fundstrat. “And there are few solid reasons to believe this run can’t extend into the next year.”
Yet Wall Street analysts also note that uncertainty about Trump’s pick for Federal Reserve Chair as well as persistent geopolitical tensions and tariffs could create headwinds for stocks after such strong recent gains.
Valuations — a measure of how pricey a stock is relative to the company’s earnings — were a hot topic in 2025, with Wall Street analysts noting that US stocks are becoming increasingly expensive.
While not a market-timing tool, high valuations can often correspond with undersized future returns (unless earnings growth continues to exceed expectations). After three years of such eye-watering gains, some strategists are less certain that US stocks have significant upside potential.
“We remain constructive on equities for 2026 as earnings continue to grow, but forecast lower index returns than in 2025, amid a broadening bull market,” Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note.
The bull case for 2026
The bulls on Wall Street point to AI. The technology has unlocked a new era of growth for US stocks, analysts say, with opportunities for considerable profits in the future.
“The US is set to remain the world’s growth engine, driven by a resilient economy and an AI-