Expect the unexpected in the last jobs report of 2025

Kraig Pakulski 0 150 Article rating: No rating

By Alicia Wallace, CNN

(CNN) — On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the final jobs report for 2025 — and economists’ estimates vary wildly over what we should expect.

The consensus estimates are for 55,000 jobs to have been added in December, a figure that’s in line with year-to-date job growth but slightly lower than November’s preliminary gains of 64,000 jobs.

But some economists say seasonal factors such as the holiday hiring peak could put December’s monthly total somewhere north of 105,000.

Either way, the unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 4.5% after hitting a four-year high of 4.6% in November, FactSet consensus estimates show.

While data like that would be a seemingly welcome indicator of labor market strength, it more likely would be a “red herring,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

“The true, underlying momentum for job growth is likely much softer and has been much softer for some time now,” he said.

Whether it’s 55,000 or even double that, December’s job gains won’t change the story of the labor market in 2025: That, with the exception of the pandemic-distorted 2020, last year’s employment growth was the weakest seen in decades.

“Total job gains for 2025 are on track to be a meager 710,000,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said in a statement. “That’s the worst hiring outside of a recession since 2003. Even 2010, on the heels of the Great Recession, was a better year for hiring than 2025.”

Lopsided job gains

For much of the past 12 months, extremely high uncertainty (from sweeping policies such as those related to tariffs); dramatic shifts in the nation’s immigration flows; and, to a much lesser extent, companies testing the AI waters, have resulted in muted employment gains – or even outright losses – across most industries.

The lone exceptions have been health care – an industry growing as a result of an aging population – and leisure and hospitality, which has reaped some of the spoils from an increasingly bifurcated economy.

“Health services is an expensive type of service for most consumers; leisure and hospitality [spending] is a discretionary service for all consumers,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at payroll company ADP. “These two sectors are consistent with a K-shaped economy where higher-income consumers are driving spending.”

Those two sectors, which make up about 22% of all employment, accounted for 84% of the total job gains seen from January through November 2025. And for the remaining 78%, it’s been a far different story.

The labor market became even more lopsided after April 2025, when President Donald Trump made his biggest and broadest tariff announcement. Sentiment plummeted and uncertainty skyrocketed, stifling hiring plans in the process. From April through November 2025, job gains in health care and leisure and hospitality outpaced the net jobs added across the entire labor market during those eight months.

Pretty much every other industry is in the throes of a “hiring recession,” Navy Federal Credit Union’s Long said.

Data released earlier this week further confirmed the listless state of the broader labor market.

The BLS’ latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data released Wednesday showed that US businesses sought out fewer workers in November and hiring activity slumped to match its lowest rate in more than a decade (excluding the data- and economy-distorting pandemic).

At the same time, layoff activity remained low in November, along with t

Tracking a strong wind event, warmer weekend

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A three day wind event begins Thursday and holds through the weekend. Powerful winds are expected and may be damaging in areas. Some of the strongest gusts will occur at the start and end of the day. Be prepared to see trash and debris in the roadways and drive with both hands on the wheel. Gusts could near 50mph along portions of the 101 and much stronger in high terrain. Soil is still compromised from recent rains and overturning trees are still possible. Temperatures will be close to freezing ton start the morning. Frost and freeze Alerts in effect for interior valleys. Highs rise into the 50s and 60s. High Surf appears along West facing beaches, 10-15FT waves are projected.

More gusty conditions are expected Friday into Saturday for most beaches and high terrain. These winds will be up to advisory and warning levels again. Expect prevailing winds near 30mph and gusts near 60mph or greater. It'll be another frigid morning with Frost & Freeze Alerts inland. Highs rise into the 60s and low 70s.

Strong Santa Ana winds and clear skies are projected into Sunday and Monday. The offshore pattern looks to continue into the middle of next week. More Wind Advisories and Warnings likely. Temperatures rise a few degrees from days prior. Most places hold into the upper 60s and low 70s by Monday with gradual warming expected.

The post Tracking a strong wind event, warmer weekend appeared first on News Channel 3-12.

Bottle-to-throttle: The precautions airlines take to make sure your pilot is sober

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Japan Airlines executives apologize over a pilot alcohol incident on September 10

By Kate Springer, CNN

It’s widely understood that drinking and operating heavy machinery don’t mix.

Alcohol can slow reaction time, impair judgment, cause trouble focusing and lead to dizziness or nausea — effects that become even more dangerous when operating an aircraft.

And while it’s rare for commercial pilots to attempt to fly under the influence, a string of incidents in recent years has brought the issue to the forefront.

Most notably, Japan Airlines came under scrutiny due to excessive alcohol consumption by two pilots the day before their flight in December 2024.

A captain from the same airline admitted to drinking three beers the day before his flight from Hawaii to Japan’s Chubu Centrair International Airport the following August.

After failing a self-administered alcohol test, the pilot ultimately called in sick, setting off a cascade of delays as the airline rushed to find a replacement.

In the fallout, Japan Airlines dismissed the pilot, announced temporary pay cuts for senior executives and vowed to improve its safeguards.

But Japan’s flagship carrier is not alone. In January of 2024, a Southwest Airlines pilot was arrested in Savannah, Georgia, on suspicion of being under the influence before a flight to Chicago.

And last July, a Delta Air Lines flight from Stockholm to New York was canceled after a pilot’s breathalyzer test exceeded the maximum allowable blood alcohol content (BAC) of 0.02% under European Union law.

These incidents raise the question: what safeguards are actually in place to ensure pilots are sober when they get behind the flight controls?

The answer is far from clear-cut, because there’s no universal law that applies to every airline.

In practice, airlines rely on several layers of protection: bottle-to-throttle rules, strict BAC limits, random testing, suspicion-based testing, medical oversight, peer reporting systems, rehabilitation programs and — in the case of violations — severe penalties ranging from license suspensions and revocations to criminal charges. Some countries also require pre-flight breath tests.

While guidance from the International Civil Aviation Organization prohibits licensed aviation personnel from “operating under the influence of psychoactive substances,” regulators and individual airlines determine the specific details, resulting in a patchwork of rules.

Some countries require a BAC below 0.04%, while others mandate limits of 0.02% or even 0.00%.

Additionally, some jurisdictions enforce eight, 10, 12 or 24 hours of “bottle-to-throttle,” referring to the time between a pilot’s last drink and reporting for duty.

All of these different rules can make it hard for pilots to keep track of specific thresholds when flying internationally. But for retired training captain Pete Hutchison, who flew internationally with Virgin Atlantic for over 20 years, the math is pretty simple.

“I worked to a more general standard, and that is, don’t even get yourself into a situation where you’re quibbling about 0.01,” Hutchison, who goes by “Read more

Trump wants to own Venezuela’s oil, but its largest oil customer is speeding toward clean energy

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By Ella Nilsen, CNN

(CNN) — President Donald Trump wants the US to sell Venezuela’s oil. But who would buy it?

China has long been one of Venezuela’s biggest customers for oil. But its hunger for that oil is waning, as the country pulls off a stunningly fast transition to electric vehicles.

That transition means China’s oil imports likely won’t be seriously disrupted by the recent US military operation in Venezuela and Trump’s push for American companies to revitalize the oil infrastructure there, experts told CNN. China will probably be able to procure the oil it needs from Russia or Iran.

But there’s little doubt on the long-term trajectory of China’s oil demand: Analysts say it will trend downward. Many have projected the country has either already reached ‘peak oil’ or will very soon.

As CNN has reported, the Trump administration has told Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodriguez the country must cut ties with China, Iran, Russia and Cuba, and agree to partner exclusively with the US on oil production.

In a statement Tuesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning called the Trump administration’s moves “bullying,” and said it “seriously violates international law.”

China’s oil diet matters. As the world’s biggest oil importer, what happens here has ripple effects across the global oil market.

Energy experts say this trend shows how sharply the US and China are diverging on the energy transition, with China sprinting far ahead on renewables and EVs, while the US doubles down on drilling oil at home and abroad.

Much of this has been driven by the transformation of China’s transportation sector from gas-powered vehicles to electric. China owns the EV market; of the 18.5 million electric vehicles sold globally last year, more than 11 million were sold in China, according to UK research firm Rho Motion.

“This is just very decisive; it’s not going to go back,” said Li Shuo, director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. Compared to the start and stop rollout of electric vehicle policy in the US, EVs have become firmly entrenched in China.

And with the domestic market increasingly saturated with EVs, Chinese companies are looking to sell their cars elsewhere around the globe. Chinese company BYD — which recently upended Tesla as the world’s largest seller of EVs — exported a record number around the world this year, Rho Motion data shows.

“We are now seeing the China EV story being replicated in other parts of the world, and very interestingly, more so in the global south than the US and European countries,” Shuo said.

While oil demand from the country’s transportation sector has already peaked, other sectors including petrochemicals and jet fuel are projected to keep rising. About 400,000-500,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil flow to China, according to Janiv Shah, a vice president of commodity market research at Norwegian energy firm Rystad. Venezuela accounts for a small percentage of China’s overall oil imports.

“Any US intervention could force this number to drop dramatically as we see this move as a symbolic strike against China on the world scale,” Shah wrote in an email. But Shah added China will still have access to oil supplies from other countries. “Chinese refiners would likely pivot to oth

Intel hopes its new chip can be the future of AI. An executive explains how

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By Lisa Eadicicco, CNN

Las Vegas, NV (CNN) — Intel, fresh off a historic investment from the Trump administration, has a plan to radically reshape the company’s strategy.

And if you think it involves AI… You’re right.

Once the dominant player in chips, Intel has struggled to keep pace with rivals over the past decade, ceding ground to Qualcomm and Nvidia in crucial areas like mobile and AI. And while Intel is still the top maker of laptop and desktop chips, it’s facing increased competition from rivals.

Under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took the helm last March, the company has a new turnaround plan. And it depends in part on the newly announced Core Ultra Series 3 chip, which will be in almost every major new laptop this year.

But Intel knows it needs to embed its chips in more than laptops to catch up – and potentially get ahead – in AI. That’s why its new chips will also power devices like robots as the next major area of growth for AI, Jim Johnson, head of Intel’s client computing group, said in an interview at the CES tech conference in Las Vegas this week.

“The devices between PCs and the cloud are almost infinite,” he said just after the company introduced its new chip.

Intel is still the top PC chipmaker by a large margin. The International Data Corporation reported that Intel accounted for more than 71% of the market in 2024 (it hasn’t published full-year data for 2025 yet).

But it’s facing increased competition from AMD, and Apple shifted away from using Intel’s chips in its MacBooks in favor of its own processors in 2020. Intel also cut 15% of its staff last year, and shares (INTC) are down more than 18% over the past five years.

Intel wants the new chip to bolster its core PC business in two ways: first, by improving non-AI qualities that PC buyers look for, like battery life; and second, by boosting performance for the ways people now use AI. That includes coding agents or video-conferencing apps like Zoom that use AI to improve call quality. The company says the new chip will power more than 200 new PC designs.

There’s no one-size-fits-all for consumers’ AI needs, Johnson said. “It’s like, what does a reporter need that may be different than what a gamer wants?”

But Intel’s rivals are moving equally as fast.

AMD announced new chips at CES that can process larger AI models on laptops without having to rely on the cloud for processing, boosting privacy and lowering lag. Qualcomm, a relatively small player in the PC market, has also been pushing more deeply into the laptop space; it announced a new laptop chip at CES that it claims will offer multi-day battery life and is optimized for AI tasks.

Intel will also have to avoid repeating its strategic missteps. That involves more than just figuring out what people want from their PCs; it also means making chips fast enough to keep up with, or surpass, rivals.

Tan is working on that, according to Johnson, who reports to him directly.

In one of their first one-on-one meetings, Tan encouraged Johnson to text him if customers were unhappy.

“(Tan) wants to know good news, bad news, problems, plans,” Johnson said.

Like other major chipmakers, Intel is betting on emerging technologies like humanoid robots for future growth. And it’s making some progress.

Oversonic Robotics, a company that makes humanoid robots for healthcare and other industries, plans t

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