By Gordon Ebanks, CNN
(CNN) — The war in Iran is pushing up prices for already-strained farmers, with higher costs for fertilizer and energy on top of last year’s tariffs. And the increasing pressure on American agriculture could lead to even bigger price tags at the grocery store.
John Yeley, an Illinois farmer who grows corn and soybeans, said prices for nitrogen — a key fertilizer component — are going up so fast that he can’t even get suppliers to commit to a price ahead of purchases.
“When I call a retailer right now … I could not get a price on any nitrogen source out there,” he said.
The war has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a major chokepoint through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and one-third of the world’s fertilizer pass. It’s a shock to the global fertilizer supply as American farmers prepare for the spring planting season, which can start as early as March.
While most fertilizer used on US farms is made in North America, the rising cost of natural gas means American-made fertilizer will get more expensive as well. The price for imported urea, a crystallized form of nitrogen that powers much of the world’s farming, has risen by close to a third since the US and Israel attacked Iran, according to FactSet.
Yeley told CNN that since the war in Iran, only one supplier has given him a quote for nitrogen prices; he usually uses several suppliers based in various locations.
The strain on farmers could drive up grocery costs, which have been a significant source of stress for millions of Americans for months. Even before the war began, USDA economists projected that food prices this year would rise more than in 2024 or 2025.
“When farmers face supply shortages or major price increases, those impacts ripple through the entire food chain,” said Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, at a press conference two weeks ago.
The lay of the land
The war with Iran adds to financial uncertainty for American farmers.
Even before the conflict, the cost of nitrogenous fertilizer shot up by 22% from February 2025 to February 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“The writing was on the wall that there was probably going to be an increase in fertilizer prices heading into the spring,” said Josh Boxell, who grows corn and soybeans 50 miles north of Indianapolis.
Meanwhile, farmers aren’t making much of a profit — if at all. The US-China trade war closed off what had been one of the largest markets for American farmers, plunging the value of their crops.
Josh Manske, who grows corn and soybeans in southwest Iowa, noted the massive swings in the price of his crops following months of trade negotiations. He said the market is “just unsustainable” right now.
It’s not just a decline in crop prices. Farming equipment has gotten more expensive over the years, and the cost of diesel — which powers the machinery — has also increased with the war in Iran.
Chad Hart, a crop market specialist and economics professor at Iowa State University, told CNN that while the broader American economy is on solid footing, “the agricultural economy’s been in a recession.” Hart pointed to low c