By Matt Egan, CNN
New York (CNN) — Many workers fear artificial intelligence is coming for their jobs, an idea bolstered by warnings from AI leaders and anecdotes from a recent Federal Reserve report.
Yet new research finds the opposite is true – at least for now.
Jobs that are highly exposed to AI automation are growing faster than they did prior to Covid-19 – even faster than all other occupations, according to Vanguard.
The findings don’t necessarily signal an all-clear for workers worried about AI disrupting their careers. Some companies have recently reported they’re eliminating some positions because AI can automate entry-level workers’ tasks or make current workers more efficient.
Yet there’s no evidence the technology is doing widespread damage, at least not yet.
“At a high level, we have not seen evidence that AI-exposed roles are experiencing lower employment,” Adam Schickling, senior economist at Vanguard, told CNN in a phone interview.
The Vanguard analysis focused on roughly 140 occupations it deemed the most vulnerable to getting replaced by AI, including office clerks, typists, HR assistants, law clerks and data scientists.
These are jobs with the highest share of working hours performing tasks that AI systems could potentially automate with a high degree of autonomy.
In other words, these are the positions likeliest to shrink as AI explodes.
But that’s not happening. Not necessarily because AI isn’t a long-term threat to jobs, but because the tech just isn’t quite good enough yet.
AI-exposed jobs are growing
In fact, Vanguard found that employment among the occupations with high AI exposure increased by 1.7% during the post-Covid period of mid-2023 to mid-2025.
That’s a faster pace for these jobs than the 1% increase during the pre-Covid period (2015 to 2019).
By contrast, job growth has slowed for all other occupations, according to Vanguard.
Schickling said he purposely didn’t compare recent job trends with the 2020-2022 period because that was a very unusual time in the job market, making it an inappropriate baseline.
Wages are up, too
Vanguard found similar results for wages.
Occupations with high AI exposure experienced real wage growth (adjusted for inflation) of just 0.1% pre-Covid, according to Vanguard. But that has accelerated to 3.8% in the post-Covid period.
By comparison, all other occupations less exposed to AI have enjoyed a smaller acceleration in real wage growth, going from 0.5% pre-Covid to 0.7% post-Covid.
This finding is surprising. If AI were really damaging the job market, it should show up by shrinking paychecks.
“While AI may have started to change our workflows, its role in explaining the recent slowdown in job growth is overstated,” Vanguard said in the analysis.
‘We can’t just sleepwalk into it’
All of this data contrasts with the doomsday warnings from some economists and CEOs – including AI leaders.
In May, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned AI could eliminate half of all entry-level jobs in white-collar professions, spiking the unemployment rate up to 20% in the near future.
“It’s eerie the extent to which the broader public and politicians, legislators, I don’t think, are fully aware of what’s going on,” Read more