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Will the housing market crash in 2026? It’s a good question, but the answer isn’t as easy as a simple “yes” or “no.”
The 2025 housing market has been plagued by numerous challenges, causing buyers and sellers alike to struggle to make headway. These included stubborn mortgage rates, affordability concerns, and general economic uncertainty. However, experts remain optimistic that 2026 will bring about some positive changes for the real estate industry, as well as consumers.
That said, next year won’t be without its share of hurdles.
HomeLight examines the state of the market heading into next year, drawing on expert insights and market data to provide an idea of what to expect, and attempting to answer the question of whether the housing market will crash in 2026.
Home prices are expected to soften … in some markets
Stubborn home prices have been a persistent pain point for would-be buyers in 2025. But experts predict that some relief is on the way next year, at least in some markets, which could create a path onto the field of play for those who have been sitting on the sidelines due to prohibitive pricing. However, nationwide, prices might still be a major blocker.
A recent report from Realtor.com on the state of the housing market predicts price drops in 22 major cities across the United States, primarily located in the West or Southeast. Florida markets, such as Tampa and the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton area, are expected to experience healthy pricing dips of 3.6% and 8.9%, respectively. Real estate market darlings like Miami will likely remain unreasonably priced for most Americans.
Indeed, nationwide, Realtor.com also reports that overall, home sales might slow, as prices are expected to rise by 2.2%.
“We are already seeing some price corrections, especially here in condos in South Florida. So, I believe buyers should actually take advantage of that now if they can,” says Joel Freis, a South Florida real estate agent.
“But at the very least, come the first part of next year, I think you’ll see prices drop or hold steady from where they’ve already come down or maybe come down a little bit more, and a low range of trade buyers will be able to capture good deals,” Freis adds.
Both Freis and his real estate team partner, Denise Madan, are confident that the market will be resilient next year, rejecting the term “c