By Mostafa Salem, CNN
(CNN) — More than six weeks after he was announced as their new supreme leader following the assassination of his father, Iranians have still not seen or heard Mojtaba Khamenei.
In the midst of a conflict seen as posing an existential threat to the regime that has ruled their country for nearly half a century, Khamenei has been conspicuously absent. Instead, statements attributed to the 56-year-old cleric have been read out on national television or posted on social media. The regime has even used AI-generated videos to show Khamenei delivering messages, fueling speculation that the new supreme leader is incapacitated or abroad.
It’s in stark contrast to his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was for decades the highly visible face of Iranian decision-making. Under him, not a week passed without a speech, a ruling, a carefully timed intervention.
A source told CNN last month that Khamenei had suffered a fractured foot, a bruised left eye and minor lacerations to his face in the same wave of strikes that killed his father and Iran’s top military commanders.
Another report on Reuters cited unnamed sources as saying he is taking part in meetings with senior officials via audio conferencing and is engaged in decision-making on major issues including the war and new negotiations with Washington.
Is Khamenei in the loop? Is he setting the parameters, drawing the red lines his negotiators need? Or is the office of the leadership functionally vacant, and if so, who’s calling the shots?
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, says it appears that “Mojtaba is not in a state where he can actually make critical decisions or micromanage the talks,” but that “the system is using him to get final approval for key broad decisions and not (for) the tactics for the negotiations.”
“The system does deliberately highlight Mojtaba’s involvement because it provides a protective shield for that against internal criticism… unlike his father who would come out regularly and comment on the state of negotiations,” he added. “Mojtaba is missing in action, so attributing views to him is a good cover for Iranian negotiators to protect themselves from criticism.”
‘Very reasonable people’
US President Donald Trump has boasted since the killing of the elder Khamenei that Iran has undergone regime change and described those now negotiating on behalf of Tehran as “reasonable.”
“We’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before,” he said last month.
Iran’s opaque political system makes finding answers all the more difficult. But the longer Khamenei stays out of the public eye, the louder the questions will become.
One survivor of the US-Israeli purge of Iran’s political and military leadership was Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the country’s long-serving parliament speaker, who led the first round of negotiations with the US in Islamabad.
The former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander – who was involved in crushing pro-reform student protests – has emerged as one of Iran’s few politicians capable of dealing with both suit-wearing diplomats and soldiers in battle fatigues.
Ghalibaf was joined in Islamabad by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and a large delegation of Iranian officials in what appeared to be a deliberate attempt to signal unity.
As they negotiate the regime’s survival abroad, at home they must manage a base that has grown even more apprehensive about talks with