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Por Hanna Ziady, CNN

El Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) redujo de forma moderada su previsión de crecimiento económico global para este año, pero advirtió que el impacto de la guerra con Irán podría ser mucho más grave si el conflicto se prolonga y los precios del petróleo siguen subiendo.

“El panorama global se ha oscurecido abruptamente tras el estallido de la guerra en Medio Oriente”, escribió Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, consejero económico del FMI, en el más reciente informe de Perspectivas de la Economía Mundial del organismo, publicado este martes. El conflicto aún podría provocar una “crisis energética a una escala sin precedentes”, agregó.

El FMI ahora prevé un crecimiento global de 3,1 % en 2026, una rebaja de 0,2 puntos porcentuales frente a su pronóstico de enero. Esta revisión moderada parte del supuesto de que la guerra será “relativamente corta”, indicó. También prevé que la inflación global suba a 4,4 % este año.

Sin embargo, el organismo también planteó dos escenarios en caso de un conflicto más prolongado. En el más grave de ellos —en el que los precios del petróleo y del gas natural suben entre 100 % y 200 % frente a enero y se mantienen en ese nivel hasta 2027—, el crecimiento global sería de apenas 2 % este año.

Eso supondría “un escenario muy cercano a una recesión global”, definida como un crecimiento inferior al 2 %, algo que solo ha ocurrido cuatro veces desde 1980, según el FMI.

Antes de la guerra, la economía global se estaba comportando mejor de lo previsto, con el crecimiento encaminado a una revisión al alza este año, agregó el organismo. Como elemento positivo, el FMI señaló que esta rebaja fue parcialmente compensada por una reducción de los aranceles de EE.UU. frente al año pasado.

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Con información de Olesya Dmitracova, de CNN.

The post El FMI recorta su previsión de crecimiento global por la guerra con Irán y advierte de un impacto mayor appeared first on News Channel 3-12.

By Meg Tirrell, CNN

(CNN) — For the majority of people who start taking GLP-1 medicines with the hope of losing weight, the drugs can feel almost miraculous: Cravings are quieted. Exercise can become easier and more fun. Pounds that stubbornly remained for years finally dissipate.

But for a smaller subset of people, the medicines don’t help with weight loss. Clinical trials suggest about 10 to 15% of people who try GLP-1s, such as Wegovy and Zepbound, are “non-responders” when it comes to substantial weight loss. A study published last week suggested genetics may play a role.

But research, including new findings published Tuesday, is also continuing to paint a picture of GLP-1 medicines’ benefits independent of weight loss. Clinical trials in heart health, for example, have suggested the medicines can reduce the risk of heart attacks and strokes, and improve outcomes in heart failure, even when participants don’t lose weight – or, in some cases, possibly even if participants gain weight.

The latest findings shed light on how the drugs may improve liver health. Wegovy, made by Novo Nordisk and based on the active ingredient semaglutide, was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration in August for a serious liver disease called metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, or MASH, estimated to affect about 6% of US adults. It was shown in a clinical trial to help dramatically improve markers of the disease.

“For the most part, I think the dogma is that this improvement is driven by weight loss,” said Dr. Daniel Drucker, a pioneer of GLP-1 research at the University of Toronto whose lab produced the new study. “But we have seen hints in our lab that weight loss isn’t the whole story.”

Drucker argues the mounting evidence should change the way health insurers and government programs consider whether to pay for the medicines: instead of assessing weight loss as a measure of their success, they should take into account their other benefits “across a wide range of very serious diseases.”

“Insurance companies have historically required at least 5% weight loss after three to four months of treatment in order to continue covering GLP-1 treatment,” said Dr. Jody Dushay, who prescribes the medicines in her practice at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston. “With new information about metabolic benefits separate from weight loss, this will definitely need to be reconsidered.”

She estimates that about 5 to 8% of patients in her practice are what she calls “weight non-responders” to GLP-1s. The drugs are so named for the hormone they mimic, which plays a role in insulin secretion, stomach emptying and appetite.

“But with the increasing number of indications for these medications,” Dushay told CNN in an email, “we are going to see (or, we need to look for!) benefits in people who do not meet weight loss ‘responder’ criteria.”

‘Elegant work’

Drucker’s study, led by postdoctoral fellow Dr. Maria Gonzalez-Rellan, sought to understand why semaglutide appeared to improve markers of MASH regardless of whether participants lost weight in clinical trials.

The research team did this, in part, by creating essentially “weight non-responders” out of lab mice, eliminating GLP-1 receptors in the brain in a group of them to make it so they don’t lose weight with GLP-1 medicines, Drucker said.

By Alisha Ebrahimji, CNN

(CNN) — In one of his first interviews since being released from police custody in the Bahamas, Brian Hooker told CBS on Tuesday he is choosing to believe his wife is still alive and plans to go back out and search for her. Hooker, who told investigators his wife fell overboard and vanished in rough waters, was released without charges.

“I won’t be able to stop looking,” Hooker told the outlet.

Lynette Hooker, a 55-year-old mother and sailor, went missing on April 4. Her husband of 25 years told authorities she fell from an 8‑foot dinghy near Elbow Cay in the Abaco Islands that evening as the couple was traveling back to their yacht, according to police.

Brian Hooker was arrested and questioned several times in connection with her disappearance before being released without charges. The US Coast Guard has since opened a criminal investigation into Lynette Hooker’s disappearance.

“I believe I’ve been told that people have lasted in the Bahamas after falling overboard for days and even weeks,” he told CBS, adding with so many islands, the search area is vast and there are many possibilities for where she could have taken refuge. He said he is “not really capable of just turning away from this.”

This story is developing and will be updated.

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By Devan Cole, CNN

(CNN) — A divided federal appeals court on Tuesday ordered US District Judge James Boasberg to end his efforts to hold Trump administration officials accountable for flouting his orders in a high-stakes immigration case.

The decision comes almost exactly a year after Boasberg, the chief judge of the federal trial-level court in Washington, DC, said in a blockbuster ruling that “probable cause exists to find the government in criminal contempt” for defying his orders to temporarily halt the deportation of migrants under a powerful wartime authority invoked by President Donald Trump.

The Trump administration appealed several times to the DC Circuit Court of Appeals so the contempt proceedings never fully got underway, halting the judge’s work while it considered whether he had the power to move ahead with the inquiry.

But now, a pair of Trump appointees on the appellate court has decided to fully stamp out Boasberg’s plans, saying in a sharply worded opinion that his contempt probe represented “a clear abuse” of power given that the administration had previously identified then-DHS Secretary Kristi Noem as the official responsible for deciding to allow the deportations in question to continue.

“The district court proposes to probe high-level Executive Branch deliberations about matters of national security and diplomacy. These proceedings are a clear abuse of discretion,” Neomi Rao and Justin Walker, who are appeals court judges, said in the unsigned opinion.

“The district court has launched an intrusive criminal contempt investigation into whether the government acted willfully when it transferred suspected Tren de Aragua members to Salvadoran custody. But the end of this investigation is a legal dead end,” the court said.

Judge Michelle Childs, an appointee of former President Joe Biden, dissented.

This story is developing and will be updated.

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