By Nimi Princewill, CNN
Abuja (CNN) — In northern Malawi, Suteny Williams Nsamba is struggling to buy fertilizer for his small farm, where he grows corn, groundnuts and tobacco. The war in Iran sent living costs soaring, and he warns if shipping disruption continues into Malawi’s crop-growing season in November, a “devastating low yield” is inevitable.
“The prices of many commodities will rise, and life will be unbearable,” he told CNN.
Nsamba’s struggles echo across Africa, with economies hit hard as fuel prices surge and the obstruction of trade routes leads to shortages of fertilizer during the key planting season.
The two-week ceasefire announced between the United States and Iran brings hope, but even if it holds, few expect a swift return to normality. Aliko Dangote, the owner of Africa’s largest oil refinery in Nigeria, told CNN last month that it may take several months for oil prices to stabilize.
While nowhere has been spared the impact of the Iran war, African countries – which rely heavily on imports of fuel, food, and fertilizer – are especially vulnerable.
Simon Mulongo, a former special African Union envoy to Somalia and the Sahel, told CNN that the temporary ceasefire has come too late to ease the hardships faced by African nations confronting rising resource prices.
“It is late and uneven,” he said, leaving some oil-importing countries on the continent dealing with “currency pressure, subsidy strain, and rising pump prices.”
Across Africa, fuel prices have surged by as much as 15% to 40%, further straining already struggling economies. In Malawi, petrol prices have risen by 34%, while jet fuel prices jumped by 81%.
Once again, African countries have found themselves victims of a distant war they have no say in.
“Earlier shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war show that African economies remain deeply exposed to global volatility,” said Fola Aina, a political scientist and international security analyst.
Distant war, local burden
The economic impact of conflicts elsewhere is painfully familiar to Africa, a continent that was only just recovering from price shocks caused by Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the two neighboring countries were significant suppliers of agricultural goods to many African nations.
A survey conducted by the think tank ODI Global in 2024 revealed that Kenya and Egypt — among the continent’s largest economies — relied on Russia and Ukraine for a substantial portion of their wheat imports, sourcing up to 85% and 67%, respectively.
Much of the impact stems from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While much of the global attention has been on oil, the chokepoint is also a vital route for fertilizer, putting harvests and daily meals at risk. Even with the truce underway, only a trickle of ships are getting through.
The figures showing Africa’s reliance on global supply chains are stark.
Africa’s annual food import costs range between $70 billion and $100 billion, according to the United Nations. The continent also imports over 6 million tons of fertilizer each year. Additionally, Africa’s spending on refined petroleum products exceeds $120 billion annually.
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