By Kevin Liptak, Kylie Atwood, Zachary Cohen, Jennifer Hansler, CNN
(CNN) — After ordering the largest American military buildup in the Middle East since the onset of the Iraq War, President Donald Trump now has a decision to make on Iran.
The options before him now appear relatively well established, confirmed in vague terms by the president himself during informal question-and-answer sessions over the last several weeks and described in more detail by people familiar with the matter. They range widely, with some carrying significant risks, and he’s hearing sometimes conflicting advice from allies, advisers and foreign counterparts.
- Trump could hold off ordering any military action at all, hoping the presence of two aircraft carriers, dozens of warships and hundreds of warplanes off Iran’s coasts might convince its leaders to make a deal.
- He could order a limited strike on military targets to drive home his demands that Iran abandon any ability to build nuclear weapons.
- He could approve an attack intended to topple Iran’s leaders, even if what replaces them remains unknown — the more maximalist approach.
“Everything that has been written about a potential War with Iran has been written incorrectly, and purposefully so,” Trump declared on Truth Social on Monday. “I am the one that makes the decision, I would rather have a Deal than not but, if we don’t make a Deal, it will be a very bad day for that Country and, very sadly, its people.”
Less clear is what, precisely, Trump is looking to accomplish. It’s also a bit of a mystery why he is considering action right now or what legal authorities he might rely upon to launch the second attack on Iran in the span of eight months.
He’s made little attempt to build a public case for or against a potential war. Behind the scenes, Trump is hearing differing opinions on whether to order new strikes or — given the serious risk of becoming mired in a prolonged conflict — allow diplomatic efforts to continue.
Here are the paths Trump is considering, and how the administration is thinking about each one.
Option 1: Let diplomacy play out
Top White House officials continue to say Trump’s preference is to secure a deal with Iran that avoids any type of military confrontation.
His envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner have been conducting indirect talks with Iranian officials over the last several weeks and will return to Geneva, Switzerland, on Thursday for another round. Both men have encouraged the president to allow time to see whether a deal is possible, though Witkoff said Saturday that Trump is “curious” as to why Iran hasn’t “capitulated” in negotiations.
Each side has drawn red lines — and some directly conflict. Trump says Iran should not be allowed to enrich any uranium. Iran says that is its right, and insists its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes.
The Iranians are still working on a proposal that might bridge that gap and expect to share it with mediators from Oman before Thursday’s high-stakes talks, according to a source familiar with the matter.
“This Thursday will decide everything, a war or a deal,” said a regional source familiar with the talks.
Trump launched surprise strikes on Iran’s nuclear program last year ahead of another scheduled round of US-Iran talks, but this time regional sources expect the president’s team will go to the table in Geneva before taking any military action, based on discussions with US officials.
Still, days before the talks, it did not appear the Iranian proposal would include a commitment to zero uranium enrichment, sources said. The demand has long been a non