By Nimi Princewill, CNN
(CNN) — When Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopia’s prime minister in 2018, he offered a clean slate for Africa’s oldest uncolonized nation, which had been suffocated by decades of strict state control.
His predecessor, Hailemariam Desalegn, had overseen strong economic growth during his nearly six-year rule but continued a historical pattern of using violent crackdowns to crush dissent. This repression sparked years of protests and widened the divide between his government and the public, ultimately leading to his resignation.
Just 90 days into his premiership, Abiy, at the time only 41, stunned the world by negotiating a truce that ended a bitter 20-year civil war with neighboring Eritrea.
This rapid breakthrough, combined with early reforms such as releasing political prisoners and allowing a freer press, earned him the Nobel Peace Prize. It positioned him as a regional peacemaker and a domestic reformer, leading many to believe he would guide Ethiopia toward a free and democratic era.
However, that euphoria soon faded. Today, Ethiopia — Africa’s second most populous nation with over 135 million people — stands deeply divided, facing violent ethnic conflicts, restrictions on free speech and crackdowns on dissent.
As the country heads toward a national election, the leader once celebrated as a healer is now viewed by critics as the main driver of these schisms.
But that is likely to matter little in the vote, with the ruling Prosperity Party expected to dominate amid a fragmented opposition and ongoing violence.
Power grab and a country of two realities
The June 1 election reveals a country of two halves.
On one side is the booming capital, Addis Ababa, which projects a social media-friendly narrative of progress, marked by new high-rises, expanded roads, city lighting and parks, alongside economic reforms, including the launch of a new national stock market.
However, outside the capital’s borders, this urban gloss disappears.
Regions like Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia remain ravaged by active warfare, massacres, and mass displacement. Observers link these conflicts to Abiy’s push away from Ethiopia’s longstanding system of ethnic federalism, which had allowed diverse regional states to draft their own laws and maintain local armies.
For nearly three decades, the country was governed by the EPRDF, a coalition of four powerful, ethnically-based parties representing the dominant regions: Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and the Southern Nations.
Abiy was initially brought to power by this coalition to calm tensions that forced his predecessor Desalegn to step down.
However, in November 2019 — less than two years after taking office and a month after receiving the Nobel Peace Prize — Abiy dissolved the EPRDF.
In its place, he established the Prosperity Party, a single national political organization that combined the former coalition with other ethnic minority parties. To further centralize authority, he ordered regional states to disband their local armies and integrate with the national military.
These reforms stripped the dominant Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) of its historical control of the regional government, driving it into active opposition. The policy also faced resistance in other regions, including Abiy’s native Oromia, where demands