By Alicia Wallace, CNN

(CNN) — The Consumer Price Index for March, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. Friday, is expected to show that US inflation bolted higher as a direct result of the Middle East war’s energy shock.

Economists are estimating that prices leapt 0.9% from February, more than triple the pace seen in January. Such an increase would drive the annual rate of inflation to 3.4% from 2.4%.

That would not only put inflation back at a level not seen in nearly two years but it would nearly wipe out Americans’ pay gains of 3.5%.

“We’ll definitely see elevated prices eating away at people’s paychecks,” Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, told CNN.

An abrupt increase with lasting impacts

The ceasefire reached earlier this week stemmed some fears that the conflict could drastically deepen or even come to a resolution sooner than later. However, uncertainty continues to linger as do the potential inflationary effects.

Even before the war, inflation was running higher than normal, kept elevated by tariff-related price hikes on goods as well as still-strong consumer demand, to a lesser extent, on services.

“Inflation pressures were already building before the war and are now intensifying,” Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, wrote Wednesday.

Inflation is expected to continue to accelerate in the coming months as the war’s aftershocks ripple beyond gas prices and permeate through a host of commonly purchased goods as well as some services.

Sharply rising gas and energy prices are expected to be the biggest contributor to March’s expected jump in inflation, Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNN.

Pantheon is expecting a 23% rise in gas prices, which would be the highest monthly increase on record for the index.

“There’s been bigger energy price shocks in total, but they’ve rippled through over several months,” he said. “This just came through in one month.”

If Pantheon’s math bears out, the increase in gas prices would account for more than two-thirds of the firm’s projected 1% monthly increase in the overall CPI.

It’s an abrupt increase on its own but one that comes with some legs.

“The energy price shock will take many months to play out to other parts of the economy,” Tombs said. “Goods prices won’t change immediately, but after three to six months, you tend to see energy price changes filter through to consumers.”

It’s not just oil

Still, some oil-related price hikes could show up immediately. The CPI data on airfares, for example, are drawn from bookings during the month, not necessarily the flights taken, he said.

Also, there may be some limited effects from companies imposing surcharges to cover higher transportation costs, said CEPR’s Baker. Those types of increases, however, will likely show up more in April’s data, he added.

But it’s not just oil. A choked-off Strait of Hormuz has interrupted a flow of critical materials, including fertilizers, aluminum and helium.

Rising fertilizer prices and higher transportation costs could hit hard at the grocery store, piling atop some increases that were already in the pipeline, Baker noted.

“[Food] prices were already rising rapidly at the wholesale level in February, even before the war,” he wrot

By Stephanie Yang, CNN

(CNN) — The US has negotiated a fragile ceasefire that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Asian allies that depend on the waterway are already being forced to rely on others for energy security– to the benefit of America’s top adversaries.

After the initial airstrikes by the US and Israel in February, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil flows.

Allies in Europe and Asia were not informed in advance of the war or asked to take part from the outset. Nonetheless as the price of crude oil surged, US President Donald Trump lambasted other nations for not sending military support and said those that need it should “take the lead” and “go get your own oil.”

They now seem to be heeding his words, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, whose economies suddenly lost their biggest source of energy imports and have been hit first by the historic global oil crisis.

US allies Japan, Thailand, South Korea and the Philippines have looked to broker deals with Iran to ensure the safe delivery of oil and natural gas. Asian countries are also buying up more natural resources from US rival Russia, while China has signaled its willingness to help alleviate fuel shortages and deepen energy collaboration with nearby economies such as Australia, the Philippines, and even Taiwan.

On Tuesday, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire under the condition that the Strait of Hormuz be reopened, providing a reprieve from climbing crude prices. However, the material impact of the agreement remained unclear.

While the US touted its success in reopening the strait, Iran said the country’s military would continue to coordinate the passage of vessels during the ceasefire, and warned that the war was not over. Since the ceasefire announcement, only a trickle of tankers have passed through the narrow passage which, before the war began, was a free and open international waterway.

Regardless of the ultimate outcome of peace talks, Trump’s decision to go to war has reshuffled energy trade and partnerships in the region, with long-term implications for the US and the nature of its alliances in Asia.

“The crisis has exposed a hard truth about US power,” said Roc Shi, a professor at the University of Technology Sydney whose research focuses on energy issues in Asia and Australia. “Despite decades of security guarantees, the US was unable to prevent the closure of the world’s most critical energy chokepoint. Asian allies are now quietly asking whether the US security umbrella extends to energy supply routes.”

Shi said governments in Asia will prioritize diversifying their energy sources, which includes purchasing more oil and natural gas from both the US, the world’s largest producer on both counts, as well as its rivals.

“The crisis is simultaneously strengthening and straining the US‑Asia alliance,” said Shi. “Allies will now hedge – buying more from America, but also building their own resilience.”

Challenged allies

The war in Iran has had a particularly pronounced effect in Asia, where countries have been trying to conserve energy while rushing to secure more supplies. But the differing responses highlight a broad range of vulnerability among Asian nations, researchers said, prompting those most exposed to the oil crisis to seek their own solutions, even at the risk of alienating the US.

The Phi

By Adam Cancryn, Alayna Treene, Kevin Liptak, CNN

(CNN) — Vice President JD Vance spent the last month largely out of the limelight as the US waged a war with Iran that he’d privately worried would spiral out of control.

Yet with President Donald Trump now eager to broker an end to the conflict, he’s emerged as a central player with a major public role.

Vance will travel to Pakistan on Saturday to helm talks aimed at solidifying the fragile truce between the US and Iran — and in the process, elevate himself as the key peacemaker within an administration that has devoted its last several weeks to war.

It’s a daunting mission that carries little guarantee of success. The two sides are far apart and still trading barbs, offering few signs that tensions have substantially eased in the hours since Tuesday’s abrupt ceasefire announcement.

But for Vance, a prominent critic of foreign wars who harbored reservations from the start about striking Iran, the chance to negotiate a lasting deal is one he’s spent weeks working toward behind the scenes, multiple people familiar with the matter said.

And as he mulls a future presidential bid, it will offer the vice president perhaps his best opening yet to emerge in a strengthened position from an otherwise politically damaging period for the administration.

“This is a crucial moment, probably the biggest moment for JD Vance as vice president,” said Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative and a Vance ally who’s been critical of the war. “With crisis comes opportunity, and if he solves these problems, it could be very important and effective for his prospects.”

Vance is expected to lead the US delegation alongside Trump’s chief diplomatic envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, in the administration’s first face-to-face meeting with Iran since the war began.

Vance’s presence is meant to lend credence to the talks, White House officials said, given his stature within the West Wing and Trump’s trust in his ability to lay out the administration’s specific demands. Trump personally asked him to lead the renewed talks with Iran, a White House official said.

Dispatching Vance is also a move that some hope could smooth the path toward peace. Iran has signaled that it views him as a more reasonable negotiator, after its previous talks with Kushner and Witkoff ended abruptly when Trump decided to attack.

The regime is also well aware of Vance’s reputation as an outspoken anti-interventionist, having monitored reports of his role as one of the only high-ranking US officials who tried to talk Trump out of striking in the first place, two sources familiar with the matter said.

A White House official disputed assertions that Iran preferred negotiating with Vance, calling it a “clearly coordinated propaganda campaign” that is “utterly false and peddled to attempt to quash negotiations.”

In a statement, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Vance, Witkoff, Kushner and Secretary of State Marco Rubio “have always been collaborating on these discussions, and the President is optimistic that a deal can be reached that can lead to long lasting peace in the Middle East.”

From reluctant war defender to behind-the-scenes peace broker

Throughout the 40-day war, Vance studiously avoided becoming one of the main faces of the fight, ceding that role instead to others in the administration.

Vance’s public profile over the past month marked a departure from the vocal and often pugilistic role he’s played as chief cheerleader of the White Ho

Por Sylvie Zhuang, CNN

El líder de China, Xi Jinping, aludió a los conflictos mundiales en curso y a la necesidad de paz durante una reunión histórica con la líder de la oposición de Taiwán este viernes, y reiteró la oposición de Beijing a la independencia de la isla autónoma.

La visita a Beijing de Cheng Li-wun, líder del Kuomintang (KMT) de Taiwán, fue la primera reunión de este tipo en una década y se produce semanas antes de que el presidente de EE.UU., Donald Trump, aterrice en China para mantener conversaciones con Xi Jinping, en las que se espera que Taiwán ocupe un lugar destacado en la agenda.

“El mundo actual dista mucho de ser pacífico, y la paz es, por tanto, más valiosa”, manifestó Xi en el Gran Salón del Pueblo en Beijing.

China se niega a dialogar con el Partido Democrático Progresista (PDP), de tendencia independentista, que ha gobernado Taiwán durante la última década.

China reclama la isla como propia y no descarta usar la fuerza para recuperarla algún día.

En los últimos años, Beijing ha intensificado la presión y los ejercicios militares en torno a Taiwán, lo que ha generado preocupación ante la posibilidad de que las tensiones desemboquen en un conflicto geopolítico.

“Los compatriotas a ambos lados del estrecho son chinos y una sola familia”, declaró Xi, y agregó que Beijing estaba dispuesto a trabajar con los partidos políticos de Taiwán “sobre la base política común de… oponerse a la independencia de Taiwán”.

Cheng expresó su esperanza de que, “gracias a los incansables esfuerzos de ambas partes, el estrecho de Taiwán deje de ser un punto central de posible conflicto, ni se convierta en un tablero de ajedrez para la intervención externa”.

Su visita a China se produce en un momento en que el partido gobernante de Taiwán está bajo presión tanto de Beijing, que ha intensificado la presión militar sobre la isla, como de Washington, que lo está presionando para que apruebe un plan de gasto en defensa de US$ 40.000 millones que se encuentra estancado.

El KMT de Cheng aboga por unas relaciones más cordiales con China y ha estado bloqueando el proyecto de ley de gastos de defensa en el parlamento de Taiwán.

Esto se produce también en un momento en que, según los analistas, Beijing está intentando sacar provecho de los temores que existen entre algunos sectores de Taiwán de que Trump vea a la isla como poco más que un peón en la disputa más amplia entre Estados Unidos y China, y que no esté interesado en su futuro a largo plazo.

Además de las tensiones en materia de comercio y tecnología, se prevé que Taiwán sea uno de los principales temas de conversación durante la cumbre que Xi Jinping mantendrá con Trump en mayo.

China siempre ha considerado a Taiwán como el aspecto más delicado de sus relaciones con Estados Unidos y criticó duramente el anuncio en diciembre de un acuerdo de venta de armas por valor de US$ 11.000 millones entre Estados Unidos y Taiwán, uno de los mayores acuerdos de armas de la historia.

Cheng describió su visita a China como un “viaje histórico por la paz”.

Una de las paradas de su itinerario fue Nankín, que en su día fue la capital de la República de China, gobernada por el Kuomintang. En 1949, el Kuomintang fue expulsado de la China continental por las fuerzas comunistas de Mao Zedong y huyó a Taiwán.

Algunos en Taiwán desconfían de lo que un segundo mandato de Trump, centrado en las transacciones y en los intereses estadounidenses, podría significar para su futuro.

Washington mantiene estrechos lazos no oficiales con Taiwán y está obligado por ley a vender armas a la isla para su autodefensa.

Pero durante la campaña para su segundo mandato, Trump señaló que Taiwán debería pagar más a Estados Unidos por “protección” y también afirmó que había

Por Jackie Wattles, CNN

Los astronautas de Artemis II se han enfrentado a numerosos peligros en su histórica misión lunar, incluyendo la tensión extrema durante el despegue el 1 de abril, cuando su cohete consumió millones de galones de combustible, y el desafío de sortear peligrosos campos de radiación en ruta hacia la Luna.

Pero quizás el hito más imponente esté por venir: el reingreso.

Durante esta fase del vuelo, la nave espacial de los astronautas se acerca a la Tierra a gran velocidad y se adentra en la densa capa interna de la atmósfera terrestre, mientras se desplaza a más de 30 veces la velocidad del sonido.

Este proceso provoca una violenta compresión de las moléculas de aire que puede calentar el exterior de la cápsula a más de 2.760 grados Celsius.

“Para ser sincero, he estado pensando en la reentrada desde el 3 de abril de 2023, cuando nos asignaron a esta misión”, declaró el astronauta de Artemis II, Victor Glover, refiriéndose a esta fase durante un evento con los medios el miércoles.

“En una de las primeras ruedas de prensa, nos preguntaron qué es lo que más esperamos, y yo respondí: el amerizaje. Es un poco gracioso, pero también es literal: tenemos que regresar. Ya han visto muchísimos datos, pero lo mejor viene con nosotros. Hay muchas más fotos, muchas más historias”, comentó.

La reentrada se considera una de las etapas más crítica, si no la más crítica, de cualquier vuelo espacial. Y la misión Artemis II la atravesará con un problema conocido que los controladores de la misión están monitoreando.

El problema salió a la luz tras el vuelo de prueba no tripulado Artemis I alrededor de la Luna en 2022, después del cual los equipos de la misión descubrieron que el escudo térmico de la cápsula había regresado con preocupantes marcas y grietas.

Un escudo térmico es un componente crucial diseñado para proteger a la nave espacial y a sus astronautas de las temperaturas extremas durante el descenso a la Tierra.

La nave espacial Artemis I Orion regresó a casa sana y salva, pero los daños plantearon interrogantes sobre hasta qué punto los ingenieros comprendían el material utilizado para crear este hardware, llamado Avcoat, y cómo se comporta durante la peligrosa y dinámica fase final del vuelo.

Si el escudo térmico se daña o se agrieta de una manera específica, podría provocar una falla catastrófica. Y no existe ningún mecanismo de escape que pueda salvar a los astronautas en ese punto del viaje. Si el escudo térmico falla, la misión y la tripulación se perderían.

La nave espacial Orion de la misión Artemis II cuenta con un escudo térmico casi idéntico al de la misión Artemis I.

Si bien los funcionarios de la NASA han reconocido que no es el ideal, la agencia sostiene que puede traer de regreso a los astronautas —Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover y Christina Koch de la NASA, y Jeremy Hansen de la Agencia Espacial Canadiense— sanos y salvos, gracias a algunos cambios realizados en la estrategia de reentrada de la misión.

Los responsables de la misión afirman estar seguros de haber hecho bien su trabajo y de comprender las limitaciones del escudo térmico, así como la forma de proteger a la tripulación, declaró Amit Kshatriya, administrador adjunto de la NASA, durante una rueda de prensa el jueves. Y añadió: “La tripulación pondrá su vida en juego”.

Pero reconoció que hay mucho en juego.

“La nave espacial Orion entrará en la atmósfera terrestre a aproximadamente 25.000 millas por hora (40.000 km/h). Ese escudo térmico… soportará toda la fuerza de la reentrada”, explicó. “Cada sistema que hemos demostrado durante los últimos nueve días —soporte vital, navegación, propulsión, comunicaciones— depende de los últimos minutos del vuelo”.

Los problem