By Meteorologist Taylor Ward, CNN
(CNN) — After a quiet start to May, the atmosphere over the central United States is primed for an outbreak.
A volatile stretch of severe thunderstorms is expected to unfold across the Plains and Midwest through Tuesday, bringing the risk of intense tornadoes — EF3 or stronger — destructive hail, damaging winds and heavy rain to a region where spring’s most dangerous storms often arrive with considerable force.
May is notorious for severe thunderstorm outbreaks in the Plains and Midwest, and this one could live up to that reputation. This is a big shift from what has been a quiet start to the month, because of a jet stream pattern that has suppressed widespread severe storms until now.
The tornado threat is significant Sunday and Monday. The storm threat shifts east on Tuesday.
The weather pattern is also setting the stage for wildfires. There’s significant fire risk in the Southwest from Arizona to southwest Kansas — we’ll walk through some details on that threat after we talk about the timing for severe storms below.
Day by day
Sunday
Storms will rapidly develop during the mid to late afternoon across Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota. The afternoon storms will be capable of producing very large hail.
The evening brings the highest tornado threat, from about 4 p.m. to 10 p.m. CT across eastern Nebraska, southeast South Dakota and western Iowa, including Omaha, Lincoln and Sioux City.
Monday
A widespread outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible as the biggest surge of jet stream energy interacts with copious amounts of moisture in the Plains.
Supercells that erupt in the afternoon will likely spin up tornadoes — some of them EF2 or stronger — and produce very large hail. The highest threat of strong tornadoes stretches from central and eastern Kansas into southeastern Nebraska and northwestern Missouri. Widespread damaging winds will become the primary concern by late evening, although a few tornadoes will still be possible into the overnight hours.
What’s still uncertain is how storms and their cloud cover in the morning will affect conditions in the afternoon. That will play a role in pinpointing the areas with the biggest tornado threat — places where storms from Sunday night linger into the morning will have less energy for the afternoon and evening storms to tap into.
Tuesday
Ongoing thunderstorms are likely Tuesday morning from northern Texas to Michigan. The potential for strong to severe storms will ramp up again through the afternoon. However, as the cold front becomes dominant trigger for storms, the tornado threat will diminish, and wind and hail will become the primary threats.
Wildfire threat
A level 3 of 3, extremely critical fire threat exists in the Southern High Plains Sunday and Monday. Areas from southwestern Kansas to the Texas Panhandle and northeastern New Mexico are under the highest threat, while a level 2 of 3, critical threat covers a much larger area, including much of New Mexico.
The same system bringing dangerous tornadoes to the Central Plains and Midwest will be the culprit for very dry and windy conditions in the Southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph, gusts up to 50 mph and relative humidity under 10% will combine with dry fuels causing any fires that ignite to spread at a life-threating pace, accordi