By Tim Lister, CNN
(CNN) — For a relatively short “memorandum of understanding” (MoU), the draft agreement between the United States and Iran is taking a very long time to finalize.
That’s because language and sequencing is everything; every last word will be parsed and debated; every connection between one element and another scrutinized.
For example, will the 60-day process envisaged in the MoU be defined as an extension of the weeks-long ceasefire or a definitive end to hostilities?
Even if the MoU is just a page covering about a dozen points in brief, as many accounts have suggested, it’s not that simple.
“We have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on and the extent of the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make it worthwhile,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday.
The sequencing of a process that is due to unfold over two months is critical.
Where we are now
Iran and the United States reached a tentative agreement to turn the existing ceasefire into a more long-lasting settlement, US officials said Thursday.
But on Friday, President Donald Trump made a series of demands – on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear program and the unfreezing of Iranian assets held overseas – that did not go down well in Tehran.
Trump’s assertions, in a social media post, were “a mixture of truth and falsehood” and an attempt to project a “manufactured victory,” said the semi-official Fars news agency.
“The ‘musts’ that the Americans bring up are actually requests,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei.
So it appears that the MoU is still, at best, a work in progress.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in Singapore Saturday that he had spoken to Trump, who “wanted me to reiterate how patient he is in ensuring that with America undertaking this kind of historic endeavor, any deal will be a good one, a great one, and he’s patient in the pursuit of that.”
Hormuz reopening a key first step
Both sides regard agreement on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as a first step, after three months of paralysis in the critical waterway that has caused a sharp spike in the price of crude oil and other commodities.
“The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions,” Trump said Friday, with Iran responsible for demining the seaway.
At the same time, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would be lifted, Trump said.
Iran would allow shipping through the strait to return to pre-war levels over a period of 30 days, according to some accounts of the MoU. Shipping sources say the industry will want a period of sustained calm before sending vessels through.
Trump has insisted on free, unhindered navigation; Iran continues to insist it has a right to manage traffic through the international waterway, in association with Oman. Finding language to square that circle will be challenging.
Iran is pursuing “the smart management of the Strait of Hormuz,” according to Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, in an interview Friday.
“Iran’s control measures and arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz are permanent in nature and certainly not temporary,” Azizi said.
Trump has warned Oman – a traditional ally of the West – against any arrangement with Iran.
“Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we’ll have to blow them up,” he said during a cabinet meeting Thursday. “They un