By Sylvie Zhuang, CNN
Hong Kong (CNN) — China remains committed to the upcoming meeting between its leader Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump regardless of the situation in the Middle East, and cautiously views its adversary’s months-long conflict with Iran as having potentially strengthened its negotiating position, according to Chinese sources familiar with the matter.
The rare in-person meeting, already once delayed due to the US-Israeli war with Iran, is now scheduled for May 14-15, according to the White House. Several sources indicate Beijing views the high-stakes summit as a singular opportunity to secure a more stable long-term relationship with its largest economic and military competitor.
But despite the perceived advantage, sources said Beijing remains extremely cautious, with opinion among government insiders split as to how to navigate the myriad complications unleashed by the conflict, not least the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz – through which China imports about a third of its oil and gas – remaining closed when Trump arrives in the Chinese capital.
Trump’s visit “is not the same as any other heads-of-state visit,” said a Chinese source under the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. “Trump’s time in office is likely to have a lasting impact on the world order and has already fundamentally altered how the US views its own interests.”
“Whether his visit is successful or not will have a long-term impact on future arrangements between China and the US, regardless of whether the Democrats or the Republicans come to power,” said the source.
The visit had originally been intended to focus on confirming crucial deals between the two sides across a range of key sectors, but the crisis in Iran has “seriously disrupted” China’s overall planning and expectations, said Cui Hongjian, a former diplomat and an international affairs scholar at Beijing Foreign Studies University.
“China’s foreign policy has a basic standpoint: China-US relations are the top priority. Once China-US relations are stable, that can in turn help to stabilize and even improve China’s relations with other countries,” Cui told CNN.
The sudden introduction of Iran, a close partner of Beijing, into the center of US-China relations has made things “difficult for the Chinese side,” said Cui.
Beijing has yet to officially confirm the date for the summit, but with the expected meeting less than two weeks away, the prospect of a US-Iran peace deal remains distant – with a resumption of fighting a real possibility. Neither scenario is without risk for China, according to a second Chinese source speaking on the condition of anonymity.
“Of course, Trump would want to visit China after he’s finished with Iran, so he can project power … but if he were to attack Iran after visiting China, it would appear as if China has abandoned Iran,” said the source.
“Trump is very clever, he doesn’t directly target China, but he first knocked out Venezuela, then he went after Iran – essentially clipping China’s wings in these regions,” the source added.
But the Iran war has not gone as planned for the US. Rather than demonstrating American power, the conflict has pulled the US into a deeply unpopular and seemingly intractable confrontation with spiraling global economic consequences.
“Trump now would want to turn the Iran page as quickly as possible,” said Wu Xinbo, a Foreign Policy Advisory Committee member of the Chinese Foreign Ministry. “If the US had gained an upper hand, Trump would have much stronger leverage. But now it’s clear, the US simply couldn’t handle Iran. So in a sense, when it comes to