By Tamara Hardingham-Gill, CNN
(CNN) — After deciding to cancel her June trip with friends to Dubai when the emirate became the target of Iranian strikes, Lorna Davis was determined to find a new summer vacation elsewhere for the group.
Davis, who lives in London, began looking into fares for alternative breaks in destinations such as the Maldives, Mauritius and Bali. But she was stunned when she saw how expensive the flights were.
“Prices have gone up…” Davis tells CNN Travel. “At this moment, prices are so high.”
Undeterred, she reasoned that options closer to home would be cheaper, and researched vacations to Greece, but Davis found that even here, the prices were higher than usual, and continuing to go up.
“I’ve been looking all day to try to book something before they hike again.”
As summer gets closer, Davis says that fares keep getting higher and she’s running out of feasible options.
“I’m not sure what is going to happen now,” she adds, stressing that she’s “still trying” but getting increasingly disheartened.
Nearly two months after the United States and Israel began their attacks on Iran, the conflict is having a significant impact on the travel industry, and millions of travelers like Davis are facing uncertainty about the summer escape they’ve been looking forward to all year.
Air ticket prices have been rising as the war causes disruption to fuel supplies and forces up airline running costs. Many carriers are now canceling services no longer deemed profitable.
The rising costs and uncertainty are forcing some to forgo long-haul trips in favor of closer and more affordable destinations. Even those planning self-drive vacations are having to rethink their summer as pump prices also continue to soar.
Soaring travel costs
“There’ll be higher fares, less capacity and less people traveling this summer than expected,” said Dan Akins, an economist from aviation consulting firm Flightpath Economics. “So, none of it is good for the travel industry.”
It’s no mystery why costs are increasing. With the Strait of Hormuz, the main conduit for about 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas, closed to commercial traffic, supplies of jet fuel and gasoline have become disrupted.
Airlines in Europe and Asia, which are more dependent on jet fuel imports, have been hit particularly hard. And while the US is a leading exporter of jet fuel, it’s still at the mercy of price fluctuations. It’s a situation unlikely to ease quickly even if a deal is reached to reopen the Strait.
“Exposure to the largest energy disruption in history is going to mostly be conveyed in the US through pricing,” said Akins.
US carriers, he added, no longer protect themselves from market volatility by locking in prices months in advance. Many international airlines still do, but this offers no protection against shortages.
The situation is now so dire that on April 16, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, declared that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of remaining jet fuel.
Airspace closures around conflict zones are also having an effect with airlines like Emirates and Qatar Airways rerouting flights and subsequently burning more fuel. Many direct routes from Europe to Asia are being forced through a narrow corridor over Georgia and Azerbaijan or onto longer southern paths.
Those travelers flying out for vacations on “lower priced, no-frills kinds of tickets” will be hit the hardest, says Akins, as the unanticipated extra costs to airlines get passed on to passengers.
Added charges
Virgin Atlantic has increased some ticket prices by nearly $500, as well as adding extra fuel surcharges to economy-class tickets. Australian flag carrier Qantas is cutting 5% of its domestic flights, and Cathay Pacific and Uni