By Samantha Delouya, CNN
(CNN) — The US housing market was supposed to turn a corner this year, but economic uncertainty and a jump in mortgage rates fueled by the US-Israeli war in Iran are casting doubt on a potential recovery.
After years of sluggish sales, economists expected 2026 to bring lower mortgage rates and more homes for sale, breathing new life into the market after home transactions fell to 30-year lows last year.
But the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.38% this week, climbing for the fourth-straight week to levels not seen in more than six months, according to data released Thursday by Freddie Mac.
Higher mortgage rates due to the conflict in Iran and a weakening job market are making buyers more cautious, real estate experts told CNN.
“What we really want to see is healthy demand going into the spring selling season,” Kamini Lane, CEO of Coldwell Banker, one of the country’s largest real estate brokerages, told CNN. “Now, there’s a lot of volatility. The geopolitical landscape, coupled with the macroeconomic landscape, means a lot could change, and it could change on a dime.”
Home sales were sluggish in January and February, but that may have had more to do with winter weather than weak demand, Lane said. The housing market usually gains momentum in the spring, when listings rise and buyers return.
“Nobody wants to list their home when you have to shovel (snow) out your driveway,” Lane said. “Nobody wants to go to a bunch of open houses when it’s negative 10 degrees outside.”
By late February, early signs suggested home sales could pick up. Mortgage rates slipped below 6% for the first time in more than three years — a key threshold many economists believed could lure buyers and sellers back into the market.
But the optimism was short-lived. The United States and Israel launched joint attacks on Iran in late February, rattling global markets and pushing mortgage rates higher as bond traders braced for renewed inflation.
Mortgage rates track the US 10-year Treasury yield, which has climbed as the war in Iran has sparked concerns about higher inflation. The 10-year yield last week rose to 4.39%, its highest level since July. On Monday, it climbed as high as 4.44% before paring gains.
On a $450,000 home with a 20% down payment, a buyer who locked in a 30-year fixed mortgage rate one month ago would pay about $1,120 less per year than someone securing a rate today. That amounts to more than $33,000 over the life of the loan.
“I think global concerns are definitely on the forefront of people’s minds,” Manny Maza, a real estate agent based in New Jersey, said. “I think people are little bit more cognizant of their budget and their bank account.”
Tilting into a buyer’s market
Still, conditions overall are more favorable for buyers in 2026 compared to recent years, said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist. Home prices are still rising, but at a slower pace than overall inflation – and wages continue to grow.
And despite the recent rise in mortgage rates, they are still lower than this time last year, when rates hovered above 6.6%.
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