By CNN Staff, CNN
(CNN) — As negotiations between the United States and Iran edge toward a possible agreement, Tehran is increasingly signaling that any return to war would look very different from the last.
US officials said Thursday that a tentative agreement had been reached in talks between Tehran and Washington and was awaiting President Donald Trump’s approval. Yet even as negotiators reported progress, the military confrontation showed little sign of disappearing. The US launched its second round of strikes on Iran in a matter of days this week, while skirmishes continued Thursday evening in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian officials have used the negotiations to project confidence that they retain significant military options should diplomacy fail. The Revolutionary Guards said any renewed conflict would spread “far beyond the region,” threatening “crushing blows” and “utter ruin” in places opponents “cannot even imagine.”
The warnings come after a war that saw Iran target US bases, Israeli cities and critical infrastructure in Gulf Arab states, while effectively shutting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and triggering a global energy shock.
Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any future retaliation would “feature many more surprises,” while Iran’s military threatened to open “new fronts” using “new tools.” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s top negotiator, said the armed forces had used the ceasefire period to rebuild their capabilities “at the highest level.”
Experts say much of the rhetoric is intended to deter further attacks. But they also warn that Tehran retains significant escalation options should diplomacy collapse.
Should war resume, here are some ways Iran could respond:
A new blockade
Iran cannot prevail against the US and Israel via conventional military means, so it has pursued deterrence by inflicting global economic pain through a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint. Emboldened by its success, Tehran may now seek to disrupt another vital maritime corridor.
By activating its regional proxy, the Houthis in Yemen, Iran could orchestrate the closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, blocking another vital artery connecting major trade routes between Europe, Asia and the Arab world. Such a move would compound the worldwide economic pressure.
In 2023, more than 10% of the world’s seaborne oil trade passed through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. After the Houthis created maritime insecurity in the region near Yemen in 2024, that share nearly halved for oil and fell to near zero for liquefied natural gas, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
“A simultaneous crisis in Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would be far more serious, potentially affecting both Red Sea trade and Persian Gulf energy flows, which would raise oil prices, freight rates, and inflationary pressure worldwide,” Umud Shokri, an energy strategist and senior visiting fellow at George Mason University told CNN.
In recent years, the Houthis have demonstrated their ability to disrupt maritime navigation near Bab al-Mandeb by attacking, seizing and sinking vessels passing through its waters. But creating a blockade similar to the one in the Strait of Hormuz would be “much harder,” Shokri said.
“Bab al-Mandeb is not directly controlled by Iran, and any sustained closure would likely trigger a strong international naval