By Tal Shalev, CNN
Tel Aviv (CNN) — The opening strikes of the war with Iran shouldn’t have been necessary if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is to be taken at his word.
After the 12-day war with Iran in June, Netanyahu declared unequivocal victory. Israel had “removed two existential threats,” eliminating Iran’s ballistic missiles and its nuclear program.
“This victory,” he told Israelis last summer, “will stand for decades.”
Those decades ended eight months later. On February 28, the US and Israel launched the first strikes of a war that has now reached its 26th day, more than twice as long as the conflict in June. The US calls it Epic Fury. Israel has dubbed it Roaring Lion.
Whatever the name, it is a war with no clear end in sight even if US President Donald Trump hailed “productive” talks Monday aimed at ending hostilities
And yet, Netanyahu has already declared victory again.
“We are winning, and Iran is decapitated,” he said at a press conference last Thursday.
Seventy-two hours later, two Iranian ballistic missiles slammed into cities in southern Israel, registering direct hits that pierced the country’s layered missile defense. One of the missiles hit the city of Dimona near Israel’s main nuclear research center.
When the joint campaign opened with surprise strikes that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top officials, Israel’s leadership was confident and optimistic, boasting about destroying Iran’s military capabilities and disrupting its command and control. By every metric, this war with Iran has surpassed the last one.
And yet Iran is still firing, maintaining daily ballistic missile, drone and rocket attacks on Israel and Gulf states. More than 350 Iranian ballistic missiles have been launched at Israel since February 28, sending millions of Israelis into shelters every day.
“It’s Russian roulette, and living in this country is Russian roulette,” Aviad, who chose not to use his last name, told CNN from Tel Aviv hours after a cluster munition hit several sites in central Israel on Sunday.
Fifteen civilians have been killed by Iranian missiles in Israel since the war began, and four more in the occupied West Bank, a tiny fraction of the number killed in Iran and Lebanon. The twin strikes on Saturday night wounded more than 150 Israelis, the largest single-day injury tally. Iranian salvos continued to strike the country on Monday and Tuesday, even after Trump declared that the US is engaging in diplomacy with Iran. One ballistic missile, containing 100 kilograms (220 pounds) of explosives, caused significant damage to properties in Tel Aviv, injuring four people, in another failed interception attempt.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the failure to intercept the missiles was not systemic, pointing to a 92% shoot-down rate.
The extensive use of Iranian cluster munitions, however, has inflicted damage all around the country, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of Israeli aerial defense systems. Although Israel’s Arrow 3 or David’s Sling interceptors can take out a ballistic missile with a single warhead, the cluster warheads break up into scores of bomblets. They are far less deadly – and far harder to intercept.
“If it fails and we are in a safe room, we are totally safe,” Jennifer Hassan Smith, 52, told CNN. “Nothing in this world is perfect, including the air defense system. It is expected there will be occasional casualties or imperfectio