Análisis de Aaron Blake, CNN

Pocos, si acaso alguno, acontecimientos en el segundo mandato del presidente Donald Trump han llevado a su Gobierno a rectificar tanto como cuando agentes federales mataron a dos manifestantes que protestaban contra su ofensiva migratoria en Minneapolis en enero.

Desde entonces, dos altos funcionarios que supervisaban esa ofensiva han dejado sus cargos, incluida la secretaria de Seguridad Nacional, Kristi Noem, y el Gobierno reconoció tácitamente que la situación se había salido de control. Las encuestas confirmaron lo perjudiciales que fueron esas muertes para el Gobierno.

Sin embargo, la situación corre el riesgo de volver a salirse de control para el Gobierno en este tema, y en un momento políticamente bastante delicado.

Después de meses de relativa calma en lo que respecta a grandes controversias sobre deportaciones, agentes federales han matado a dos personas este mes: una en Texas la semana pasada y otra en Maine el lunes.

Al igual que ocurrió con las muertes de Renee Good y Alex Pretti en Minneapolis, estos episodios parecen destinados a poner a prueba no solo la tolerancia de los estadounidenses hacia la agenda migratoria de Trump, sino también la credibilidad del Gobierno. El Departamento de Seguridad Nacional (DHS, por sus siglas en inglés) ha hecho repetidamente afirmaciones dudosas e incluso rotundamente falsas sobre este tipo de incidentes, y han vuelto a surgir dudas sobre su versión de los hechos.

Cabe destacar que, en la muerte por disparos más reciente en Maine, el DHS ni siquiera afirma que el hombre que falleció estuviera amenazando la vida de los agentes; solo dice que huía del lugar y que el agente de ICE “temía por la seguridad pública”. Pero, por lo general, eso no es motivo para dispararle a alguien.

Entonces, ¿en qué punto se encuentra políticamente este tema?

Está bastante claro que el impacto de Minneapolis ha perdurado. Eso se debe a que, pese al éxito demostrado de Trump en reducir los cruces fronterizos ilegales a mínimos históricos, sigue claramente en terreno negativo en el tema migratorio.

Una encuesta de Reuters-Ipsos del mes pasado mostró que los estadounidenses desaprobaban a Trump en inmigración por 55 % frente a 37 %. Y dijeron que la política migratoria iba por el “camino equivocado” en vez del correcto por un margen de 51 % frente a 35 %. Esos números eran muy similares a los registrados tras las muertes de Good y Pretti en una encuesta realizada en febrero.

Las encuestas de la Universidad Quinnipiac mostraron que los números de Trump en inmigración mejoraron modestamente desde febrero, al pasar de 21 puntos negativos a 13 puntos negativos el mes pasado. Pero seguía claramente en terreno negativo.

ICE, cuyos agentes dispararon contra ambas personas este mes, también seguía siendo más impopular que nunca, incluso antes de estos últimos tiroteos en Texas y Maine.

Una encuesta de l

SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, Calif. - Wednesday will be the hottest day of the week with temperatures between 80 and 110 for most areas.

A red flag warning, heat advisory, and extreme heat warnings are in effect locally through Thursday evening.

Winds will be gusting out of the northwest through midweek.

Cooling begins Thursday though it will still be warm and well above average.

Temperatures will cool closer to normal by Friday and stabilize for the weekend and into next week mostly in the mid or upper 70s.

There is a chance for a brief boost in tropical conditions over the weekend with more clouds.

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By David Goldman, CNN

(CNN) — Just before the United States reimposed its naval blockade of Iranian ports Tuesday afternoon, Iran appeared to be readying blockade-busting vessels in the Persian Gulf that could attempt to evade US military forces.

Twenty-three Iranian vessels operating inside the Strait of Hormuz are fraudulently flagged, recently turned their transponders off or otherwise manipulating their activities to become what the industry calls “dark vessels” that make up “shadow fleets,” according to Windward Intelligence, a maritime security information service.

Iran has significant experience evading US sanctions, relying for years on a complex network of shadow companies, secretive oil cargo swaps and murky financial exchanges, noted Adnan Mazarei, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former deputy director of the International Monetary Fund. Its shadow fleets spoof their identities and sell most of their oil to China.

For example, one Iranian tanker tracked by Windward is traveling a circuitous path, loading Iranian crude at Kharg Island – Iran’s main oil hub – and routing through Iraq’s Basrah Oil Terminal before continuing on to its destination to China. That pattern is consistent with Iranian techniques to mask the origin of its cargo, Windward noted.

Ten of the 23 vessels Windward identified as potential blockade-busters hold cargo, according to Vortexa, a cargo tracking service. The remaining 13 are currently empty.

Despite the United States desanctioning Iranian oil as part of its now-defunct Memorandum of Understanding, Iran continued to use its shadow fleet to export roughly 50 million barrels of crude oil in June and 10 million in a single day last week, according to an analysis by TankerTrackers.

Many of those vessels that exited the Strait of Hormuz during the three-week ceasefire agreement are now sanctioned again. Seven of them are giant oil tankers sitting in the Indian Ocean, laden with crude and waiting on a willing buyer, Windward said.

The first US naval blockade, which lasted from mid-April through mid-June, was effective in limiting much – but not all – of Iran’s exports in and out of the strait. The regime makes about 50% of its revenue from oil sales, according to the US Energy Information Administration, and it has found a willing buyer in China, which the EIA says imports about 80% of Iran’s oil, despite US sanctions.

The blockade drove Iran’s massive inflation rate significantly higher: It already averaged 50% over the past 12 months – the country’s highest since World War II – and surged well above that in April, when the blockade started, Mazarei said. Food inflation has run well over 100%.

Around 90% of Iranian trade goes through the Persian Gulf, Mazarei noted.

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The post Iran appears to be preparing a major test of America’s blockade appeared first on News Channel 3-12.

By Meteorologist Dakota Smith, CNN

(CNN) — Massive plumes of Canadian wildfire smoke are set to pour over the border into the United States, bringing dangerous air quality to more than 100 million people in the Midwest and Northeast.

Smoke has already been an issue this summer in parts of the West, Plains and Midwest as stateside fires have burned more than 3.6 million acres, mostly in the western half of the country. But the thicker smoke, forecast to move over New York, Washington, DC and other cities in the East, is from wildfires to the north.

Check out the smoke forecast in the CNN Weather app

In Canada, more than 3,000 fires have burned nearly 4.5 million acres this summer, with a dozen blazes flaring up in Ontario in recent weeks, filling the skies with smoke that is starting to drift south, like it did in an extreme way in 2023.

Canadian wildfire activity this year is nowhere near the hyperactivity of 2023 but the combination of wildfires in Ontario and a heat dome in the central US spells smoky trouble for millions.

Planet-heating fossil fuel pollution is increasing the chance of prolonged smoke seasons as it tips the odds that extreme wildfire seasons like 2023’s — Canada’s worst season on record — won’t remain an outlier for long.

Unhealthy smoke heads for Great Lakes and Northeast

A first round of smoke is already floating over a large area from Chicago to Boston. This smoke has largely stayed higher up in the atmosphere, which means it hasn’t precipitously lowered air quality or posed a significant health risk.

But a weather pattern change in coming days will cause lingering smoke and additional plumes to sink to the surface Wednesday and Thursday bringing unhealthy air quality from the Upper Midwest to New England.

Wildfire smoke contains dangerous, tiny pollutants called PM2.5 that can travel deep into the lungs or enter the bloodstream when inhaled. The minuscule particles can lead to breathing problems like bronchitis and cause inflammation that aggravates diabetes, heart disease and other health conditions.

Much of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin are under air quality alerts due to smoke over the next few days, and the National Weather Service has warned that smoke could become an air quality concern in Chicago later this week.

People with lung or heart disease, children and older adults are especially at risk for smoke-related illness. The NWS advises people avoid smoke by limiting outdoor activities and keeping windows closed overnight.

The only silver lining the smoke brings is that it could dampen some of the heat. Smoke blocks sunlight, which would be welcome news for many parts of the Northeast expected to see high temperatures in the coming days.

The smoke is now streaming into the US thanks to a record-breaking heat dome parked over the central part of the country.

So far there have been several heat domes — large, slow-moving high pressure systems — this year from the West Coast to the Northeast. Air flows clockwise around these domes, but until now, none of them have been in quite the right spot to drag Canadian smoke south.

The northern edge of this week’s heat dome is perfectly placed over northern Minnesota and southern Ontario, where wildfires rage. This placement me